Volatility And Growth
Volatility And Growth
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波动性和增长
DOI：
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199248612.003.0003
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Banerjee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Aghion;A. Banerjee
人们早就认识到，生产力增长和商业周期密切相关。然而，直到最近，这两种现象在经济学文献中一直被分开研究。本书首次尝试分析宏观经济波动对生产率增长的影响，以及从增长到商业周期的反向因果关系。作者表明，通过私营企业家的透镜来看待经济，他们在信贷限制下投资，人们可以在某种程度上解释持续的宏观经济波动以及波动对增长的影响。从分析波动对增长的影响开始，作者认为，一个国家的金融发展水平越低，波动对增长的影响就越不利。这一预测得到了跨国面板回归的证实。数据还表明，固定汇率制度或更多的反周期预算政策在金融发展水平较低的国家促进增长。前者减少总体波动，而后者减少波动对企业提高生产力的长期投资的负面影响。本书最后探讨了信贷约束和货币外部性之间的相互作用如何足以产生持续的商业周期，并解释了货币危机的发生。
It has long been recognized that productivity growth and the business cycle are closely interrelated. Yet, until recently, the two phenomena have been investigated separately in the economics literature. This book provides the first consistent attempt to analyze the effects of macroeconomic volatility on productivity growth, and also the reverse causality from growth to business cycles. The authors show that by looking at the economy through the lens of private entrepreneurs, who invest under credit constraints, one can go some way towards explaining persistent macroeconomic volatility and the effects of volatility on growth. Beginning with an analysis of the effects of volatility on growth, the authors argue that the lower the level of financial development in a country the more detrimental the effect of volatility on growth. This prediction is confirmed by cross-country panel regressions. The data also suggests that a fixed exchange rate regime or more countercyclical budgetary policies are growth-enhancing in countries with a lower level of financial development. The former reduce aggregate volatility whereas the latter reduce the negative effects of volatility on long-term productivity-enhancing investment by firms. The book concludes with an investigation into how the interplay between credit constraints and pecuniary externalities is sufficient to generate persistent business cycles and to explain the occurrence of currency crises.