Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty
Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty
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使用概率现金流分析风险和不确定性条件下的投资
DOI：
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发表时间：
1976
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
H. Mapp
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Richardson;H. Mapp
企业的管理者，无论大小，农场还是非农场，都必须在风险和不确定性的条件下做出投资决策。然而，在评估投资时，经常使用完全知识的假设来简化分析。例如，为了评估真实的房地产投资选择，经常将平均年净回报的估计值折现为永久值。资本预算文献提出了一些评估替代投资的方法。然而，投资回收期、平均收益率、内部收益率和净现值等概念的使用体现了完全知识的假设。
Managers of business firms, large or small, farm or nonfarm, must make investment decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. However, in evaluating investments, the assumption of perfect knowledge has often been used to simplify the analysis. For example, an estimate of average annual net returns is frequently discounted into perpetuity to evaluate a real estate investment alternative. Capital budgeting literature suggests a number of approaches to evaluating alternative investments. However, use of concepts such as the payback period, average rate of return, internal rate of return and net present value embodies the assumption of perfect knowledge.