Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.
Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0
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发表时间：
2017-07-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Walters C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang Y;Winkler J;Zhong S;Bian X;Doubler D;Yu L;Walters C
大平原南部低空急流(GPLLJ)是美国中部地区最重要的环流特征之一，将大尺度大气环流与区域气候联系起来。GPLLJ输送热量和水分，促成雷暴和恶劣天气的形成，为鸟类和昆虫的春季迁徙提供走廊，增强风能供应，并分散空气污染。我们使用一个八个成员的动态缩小的21世纪中叶气候模拟集合来评估GPLLJ频率的未来变化。预计春季南部平原和夏季中部平原夜间GPLLJ频率将增加，而目前白天和凉季GPLLJ的气候模式将持续到未来。未来GPLLJ频率与北美东部上空反气旋气流的范围和强度之间的关系随季节而变化。大多数模拟预测夏季反气旋气流向西转移，但春季的不确定性更大，只有一半的模拟表明气流向西扩展。区域气候模式的选择和驱动侧边界条件对GPLLJ频率的预测未来变化有很大影响，并突出了多模式集合对估计围绕未来GPLLJ气候学的不确定性的重要性。
The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.