Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: Predicting overheating in dwellings
Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: Predicting overheating in dwellings
复制标题
动态建筑模拟的概率气候预测：预测住宅过热
DOI：
10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.03.016
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Jenkins D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenkins D
作为低碳未来项目的一部分，这项研究提出了一种方法，将概率气候预测纳入住宅过热的动态建筑模拟分析。使用大型气候预测数据库，合适的建筑软件和统计技术（侧重于主成分分析），输出以概率曲线的形式展示建筑物未来过热的风险。建筑工程师和建筑师可利用这类产出来设计一座建筑物，使其达到可接受的未来过热风险水平，即提供证据，证明该建筑物在采取具体适应措施防止过热的情况下，应能在未来气候预测的大部分时间内实现热舒适性。这种方法的概述和使用的算法提出了现有的建筑实践。虽然该方法被应用到一系列的建筑物和场景，本研究集中在夜间过热的英国住宅与简单和可实现的适应措施调查。
This study, as part of the Low Carbon Futures project, proposes a methodology to incorporate probabilistic climate projections into dynamic building simulation analyses of overheating in dwellings. Using a large climate projection database, suitable building software and statistical techniques (focussing on principal component analysis), output is presented that demonstrates the future overheating risk of a building in the form of a probability curve. Such output could be used by building engineers and architects to design a building to an acceptable future overheating risk level, i.e. providing evidence that the building, with specific adaptation measures to prevent overheating, should achieve thermal comfort for the majority of future climate projections. This methodology is overviewed and the use of the algorithm proposed in relation to existing building practices. While the methodology is being applied to a range of buildings and scenarios, this study concentrates on night-time overheating in UK dwellings with simple and achievable adaptation measures investigated.