Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating Under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study
Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating Under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study
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不确定性下的供应对反周期支付和基础面积更新的反应：一项实验研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Erik Dohlman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christopher R. McIntosh;J. Shogren;Erik Dohlman
我们设计了一个实验来模拟人们如何在三种政策情景下做出农业生产决策，每种情景都包括直接支付(DPS)：(A)没有反周期支付(CCP)的价格不确定性；(B)有CCP的价格不确定性；以及(C)价格不确定性、CCP和基数面积更新的不确定性。结果是CCP计划和对未来基础更新的感知可能性创造了激励受试者对计划(基础)作物进行更多投资的动机，尽管支付与当前的生产决策脱钩。那些选择通过增加基础作物种植来降低收入风险的人可能面临收入减少，这表明作物市场的效率可能会降低。
We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): (a) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); (b) price uncertainty with CCPs; and (c) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.