Integrating an individual-based model with approximate Bayesian computation to predict the invasion of a freshwater fish provides insights into dispersal and range expansion dynamics
Integrating an individual-based model with approximate Bayesian computation to predict the invasion of a freshwater fish provides insights into dispersal and range expansion dynamics
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DOI：
10.1007/s10530-020-02197-6
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Britton, J. Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Almela, Victoria Dominguez;Palmer, Stephen C. F.;Britton, J. Robert
短距离扩散使得引入的外来物种在最初引入后能够殖民和入侵当地栖息地，但对于许多淡水类群通常知之甚少。可以使用基于个体的模型（IBM）等预测方法来克服外来物种范围扩张的知识差距，特别是如果可以通过拟合经验数据来改进预测，但这对于具有多个参数的模型来说可能具有挑战性。因此，我们通过近似贝叶斯计算 (ABC) 估计了 RangeShifter IBM 平台中实现的模型的参数，以预测小型入侵鱼（苦味 Rhodeus sericeus）对低地河流（英国 Great Ouse）的进一步入侵。参数的先前估计是从文献和专家意见中获得的。使用固定地点的采样数据的时间序列（1983 年至 2018 年）进行模型拟合，结果表明，对于 11 个模型参数中的 5 个，后验分布与先前的假设显着不同。特别是，亚成人最大迁移概率在后验中显着高于先验。对苦味范围扩张的模拟预测，自 1984 年被发现以来，它们的早期扩张涉及相对较高的种群增长率，并在 5 年后稳定下来。苦味斑块占用率呈S形，20年后占流域面积的20%，30年后增加至80%。当时的预测是 69 年后入住率达到 95%。 IBM的开发成功模拟了这种小型入侵鱼类的范围扩张动态，ABC提高了模拟精度。这种综合方法还强调，亚成体扩散比专家意见更有可能促进快速定植率。这些结果强调了时间序列数据对于改善 IBM 参数以及增加我们对扩散行为和范围扩展动力学的理解的重要性。
Short-distance dispersal enables introduced alien species to colonise and invade local habitats following their initial introduction, but is often poorly understood for many freshwater taxa. Knowledge gaps in range expansion of alien species can be overcome using predictive approaches such as individual based models (IBMs), especially if predictions can be improved through fitting to empirical data, but this can be challenging for models having multiple parameters. We therefore estimated the parameters of a model implemented in the RangeShifter IBM platform by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in order to predict the further invasion of a lowland river (Great Ouse, England) by a small-bodied invasive fish (bitterling Rhodeus sericeus). Prior estimates for parameters were obtained from the literature and expert opinion. Model fitting was conducted using a time-series (1983 to 2018) of sampling data at fixed locations and revealed that for 5 of 11 model parameters, the posterior distributions differed markedly from prior assumptions. In particular, sub-adult maximum emigration probability was substantially higher in the posteriors than priors. Simulations of bitterling range expansion predicted that following detection in 1984, their early expansion involved a relatively high population growth rate that stabilised after 5 years. The pattern of bitterling patch occupancy was sigmoidal, with 20% of the catchment occupied after 20 years, increasing to 80% after 30 years. Predictions were then for 95% occupancy after 69 years. The development of this IBM thus successfully simulated the range expansion dynamics of this small-bodied invasive fish, with ABC improving the simulation precision. This combined methodology also highlighted that sub-adult dispersal was more likely to contribute to the rapid colonisation rate than expert opinion suggested. These results emphasise the importance of time-series data for refining IBM parameters generally and increasing our understanding of dispersal behaviour and range expansion dynamics specifically.