Does aggregation produce spuriously high estimates of behavior stability?
Does aggregation produce spuriously high estimates of behavior stability?
复制标题
聚合是否会产生虚假的高行为稳定性估计？
DOI：
10.1037//0022-3514.50.6.1199
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发表时间：
1986
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Epstein,S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Epstein,S
讨论关于为什么聚合会产生虚假相关性的争论，并表明它们是似是而非的。 HD Day 等人（参见记录 1983-31636-001）声称进行了一系列计算机模拟研究，证明聚合会产生人为的高稳定性系数，但结果显示涉及奇异的分布和不恰当的结论。然而，他们的数据实际上表明了聚合在检测他们在数据中建立的任何经验关系方面的效力。他们对未聚合数据的分析并非如此，由于测量噪声水平较高，他们无法检测数据中的异常情况。在没有它的情况下，任何数量的聚集都无法产生稳定性的证据。结论是，聚合为减少测量误差、建立和增强测量的通用性和稳定性提供了有力的工具。尽管聚合中没有任何内在因素会产生虚假相关性，但它与任何其他技术一样，可以明智地使用，也可以愚蠢地使用。有人认为，聚合必须以心理测量原理和理论考虑为指导。保证实现这一目标的过程是简单地聚合可以分配通用标签的任何内容。（35 参考）（PsycINFO 数据库记录 (c) 2016 APA，保留所有权利）
Discusses arguments as to why aggregation produces spurious correlations and shows them to be specious. A series of computer-simulated studies, claimed by HD Day et al (see record 1983-31636-001) to demonstrate that aggregation produces artifactually high stability coefficients, is shown to involve bizarre distributions and inappropriate conclusions. Nevertheless, their data actually indicated the potency of aggregation in detecting whatever empirical relations they built into their data. This was not true of their analyses of their unaggregated data, which, as a result of a high level of noise of measurement, failed to enable them to detect anomalies in their data. No amount of aggregation produced evidence of stability in its absence. It is concluded that aggregation provides a powerful tool for reducing error of measurement and for establishing and enhancing generality as well as stability in measurement. Although there is nothing intrinsic in aggregation that fosters spurious correlations, it, like any other technique, can be used wisely or foolishly. It is argued that aggregation must be guided by psychometric principles and theoretical considerations. A procedure guaranteed to achieve this is to simply aggregate whatever can be assigned a common label.(35 ref)(PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)