Recent air-temperature changes in the Arctic
Recent air-temperature changes in the Arctic
复制标题
北极近期气温变化
DOI：
10.3189/172756407782871666
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
R. Przybylak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Przybylak
摘要 主要对 1951-2005 年期间北极地区平均季节和年表面气温 (SAT) 的时空变化进行了详细分析。分析中使用了来自多达 35 个北极站的平均季节和年度均质且完整的 SAT 系列。本文重点关注 1995 年至 2005 年的 11 年，这段时期北极气温急剧变暖（年值与 1951 年至 90 年平均值相比>1°C）。 SAT 突然上升发生在 20 世纪 90 年代中期，在秋季和冬季最为明显 (>2°C)。 1995-2005 年期间升温幅度最大的地区是太平洋和加拿大地区（>1°C），而最低的地区是西伯利亚地区（0.82°C）。这一时期是至少自 17 世纪以来最温暖的时期。特别是，2005 年是异常温暖的一年（与 1951-90 年平均值相比>2°C），比 20 世纪最热的年份 1938 年还要温暖。 1936-2005年、1951-2005年和1976-2005年期间北极地区平均SAT的季节和年度趋势都是正的，第一阶段的冬季和秋季除外。过去两个时期计算的大多数趋势具有统计显着性。虽然对于当前变暖的驱动因素存在不同的看法，但 20 世纪 90 年代中期（主要是 1994 年至 1995 年）SAT 的显着上升似乎是由以下因素引起的：(i) 一系列自然因素，(ii) 温室气体负荷的非线性效应，或 (iii) 这两组因素的综合效应。
Abstract A detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in mean seasonal and annual surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic is presented mainly for the period 1951–2005. Mean seasonal and annual homogenized and complete series of SAT from up to 35 Arctic stations were used in the analysis. The focus in this paper is on the 11 years 1995–2005, a period which saw dramatic warming in the Arctic (>1˚C for annual values in relation to the 1951–90 mean). An abrupt rise in SAT occurred in the mid-1990s and was most pronounced in autumn and winter (>2˚C). The greatest warming in the period 1995–2005 occurred in the Pacific and Canadian regions (>1˚C), while the lowest was in the Siberian region (0.82˚C). This period has been the warmest since at least the 17th century. In particular, 2005 was an exceptionally warm year (>2˚C in relation to the 1951–90 mean) and was warmer than 1938, the warmest year in the 20th century. The seasonal and annual trends of the areally averaged Arctic SAT for the periods 1936–2005, 1951–2005 and 1976–2005 are positive, with the exception of winter and autumn for the first period. The majority of trends calculated for the last two periods are statistically significant. While there are varying opinions about the forces driving the present warming, it seems likely that the marked rise in SAT in the mid-1990s (mainly from 1994 to 1995) was caused by (i) a set of natural factors, (ii) non-linear effects of greenhouse-gas loading, or (iii) the combined effect of these two groups of factors.