The representative concentration pathways: an overview
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
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发表时间：
2011-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Rose, Steven K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.;Edmonds, Jae;Rose, Steven K.
本文总结了代表性浓度路径（RCPs）的发展过程和主要特点，RCPs是为气候模拟界开发的一套4种新路径，作为长期和近期模拟实验的基础。四个RCP共同涵盖了公开文献中发现的2100年辐射强迫值的范围，即从2.6到8.5 W/m（2）。区域协商进程是综合评估建模者、气候建模者、陆地生态系统建模者和排放清单专家之间创新合作的产物。由此产生的产品形成了一个具有高空间和部门分辨率的综合数据集，涵盖的时间跨度为2100年。土地使用情况以及空气污染物和温室气体的排放量大多以0.5x0.5度的空间分辨率报告，空气污染物也按部门提供（对于混合良好的气体，使用较粗的分辨率）。土地利用、大气排放和浓度数据的基本综合评估模型输出在各种模型和设想方案之间得到了统一，以确保与历史观测结果保持一致，同时保持各个设想方案的趋势。对于大多数变量，RCP涵盖了广泛的现有文献。RCPs补充了扩展（扩展浓度路径，ECP），允许气候模拟实验到2300年。区域协商进程是气候研究的一个重要进展，为进一步研究和评估，包括减排和影响分析，提供了潜在的基础。
This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m(2). The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5x0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.