Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: a review of recent advances
Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: a review of recent advances
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli3329.1
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发表时间：
2005-05
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
T. Barnett;F. Zwiers;Gabriele Hengerl;M. Allen;Tom Crowly;N. Gillett;K. Hasselmann;P. Jones;B. Santer;R. Schnur;Peter Scott;K. Taylor;S. Tett
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文献类型：
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作者：
T. Barnett;F. Zwiers;Gabriele Hengerl;M. Allen;Tom Crowly;N. Gillett;K. Hasselmann;P. Jones;B. Santer;R. Schnur;Peter Scott;K. Taylor;S. Tett
摘要本文回顾了最近的研究，评估了检测人为和自然外部对气候影响的证据。一些研究人员在涵盖气候系统许多部分的独立数据中发现了外部驱动的气候变化，包括全球和大区域尺度的地表温度、海洋热含量、大气环流以及大气温度和对流层顶高度等自由大气变量。外部强迫的影响在上个千年半球尺度温度的重建中也清晰可见。这些观测到的气候变化不太可能仅仅是由于自然内部气候变率造成的，它们与气候模式模拟的气候系统对人为和自然外部强迫的响应是一致的。有证据表明，太阳活动和火山活动等自然驱动因素至多是造成气候变化的部分原因。
Abstract This paper reviews recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric-scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible fo...