Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model
Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model
复制标题
使用工程合成风暴和基于物理的热带气旋降雨模型评估北大西洋热带气旋降雨危害
DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-22-0131.1
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Yawn, Madison C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xi, Dazhi;Lin, Ning;Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C.;Yawn, Madison C.
在这项研究中，我们设计了一种统计方法，将观测与基于物理的热带气旋（TC）降雨模型（TCR）和工程合成风暴相结合，以评估TC降雨危害。我们首先提出了一种偏差校正方法，通过将TCR模拟的历史TC降雨的概率分布与测量值进行匹配，以最小化TCR引起的误差。然后，我们通过重采样方法将合成数据集中新提出的风暴参数降雨势（POT）的概率分布与观测数据中的概率分布相匹配，为工程合成风暴分配发生概率，以反映当地气候。构建的POT包含了TC降雨的几个重要风暴参数，如TC强度、持续时间、登陆附近的距离和环境湿度，并显示出与tcr模拟的降雨量相关。所提出的方法在模拟美国大陆不同地点的降雨危害曲线方面具有令人满意的效果；它是对传统的联合概率法（JPM）的改进。
In this study, we design a statistical method to couple observations with a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall model (TCR) and engineered-synthetic storms for assessing TC rainfall hazard. We first propose a bias-correction method to minimize the errors induced by TCR via matching the probability distribution of TCR-simulated historical TC rainfall with gauge observations. Then we assign occurrence probabilities to engineered-synthetic storms to reflect local climatology, through a resampling method that matches the probability distribution of a newly proposed storm parameter named rainfall potential (POT) in the synthetic dataset with that in the observation. POT is constructed to include several important storm parameters for TC rainfall such as TC intensity, duration, and distance and environmental humidity near landfall, and it is shown to be correlated with TCR-simulated rainfall. The proposed method has a satisfactory performance in reproducing the rainfall hazard curve in various locations in the continental United States; it is an improvement over the traditional joint probability method (JPM) for TC rainfall hazard assessment.