Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA)
Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA)
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DOI：
10.1029/2018jb015644
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Kobs-Nawotniak, Shannon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bevilacqua, Andrea;Bursik, Marcus;Kobs-Nawotniak, Shannon
加州东部的长谷火山区在过去18万年里以周期性且通常是爆炸性的喷发为特征，喷发起源于一个南北延伸面积约50公里的狭长区域，包括猛犸山熔岩圆顶复合体、莫诺-因约火山链及其周边地区。在保存相对完好的时间地层记录中观察到了几个活动的时间集群，但仍受到不确定性的影响。这项研究有两个主要目标：（1）充分描述过去的喷发记录，通过使用一个随机模型，能够结合放射性年龄和地层的限制，（2）的不确定性评估的基础上，开发一个双重随机，长期的时间模型的基础上的现状。多种方法进行了描述和比较，并提出了多模型预测。我们的研究结果为长谷火山区的灾害评估和下一次火山喷发的预测提供了基础信息，估计其在未来10年内的平均发生概率为2.5%，在未来100年内的平均发生概率为22.5%。
The Long Valley volcanic region, eastern California, has been characterized by recurrent and generally explosive eruptions in the past 180,000years, originating from a N/S elongated area similar to 50km in extent, including the Mammoth Mountain lava dome complex, the Mono-Inyo volcanic chain, and their peripheries. Several temporal clusters of activity have been observed in a relatively well-preserved time-stratigraphic record, which is nevertheless affected by uncertainties. This study has two main objectives: (1) to fully describe the past eruption record by using a stochastic model capable of combining radiometric ages and stratigraphic constraints and, (2) based on the uncertainty assessment, to develop a doubly stochastic, long-term temporal model based on the current situation. Multiple approaches are described and compared, and multimodel forecasts are also presented. Our findings provide fundamental information for hazard assessment and forecasting of the next eruption in the Long Valley volcanic region, of which the mean probability of occurrence is estimated to be similar to 2.5% in the next 10years and similar to 22.5% in the next 100years.