Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland
Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland
复制标题
波兰不同气候条件下的低流量指数分析
DOI：
10.2166/nh.2017.021
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
W. Wong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Osuch;R. Romanowicz;W. Wong
低流量指数在未来气候下的变化估计在波兰的8个集水区。模拟方法被用来得出日流量在不断变化的气候条件下，以下RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5排放情景。采用HBV径流模型模拟枯水径流。使用1971-2000年和2001-2010年期间的径流观测值对模型进行了校准和验证。两个目标函数用于校准：Nash-Sutcliffe和对数变换的Nash-Sutcliffe。最后，使用GCM/RCM模式模拟的2021-2050年和2071-2100年期间的偏差校正的降水和温度数据运行模型。我们估计低流量指数的模拟时间序列，包括每年最小的7天平均河流流量和数量，严重程度和持续时间的低流量事件。通过方差分析和Tukey检验对低流量指标的偏差进行量化。结果表明，气候模型，以及目标函数，低流量指数的影响很大。未来两个时期的指数与1971-2000年参考期的比较证实了以前研究中获得的趋势，即低流量事件的频率和强度预计会减少。
Changes in low flow indices under future climates are estimated for eight catchments in Poland. A simulation approach is used to derive daily flows under changing climatic conditions, following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The HBV rainfall–runoff model is used to simulate low flows. The model is calibrated and validated using streamflow observations from periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010. Two objective functions are used for calibration: Nash–Sutcliffe and log transformed Nash–Sutcliffe. Finally, the models are run using the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data simulated by GCM/RCM models for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We estimate low flow indices for the simulated time series, including annual minima of 7-day mean river flows and number, severity and duration of low flow events. We quantify the biases of low flow indices by N-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis and Tukey test. Results indicate a large effect of climate models, as well as objective functions, on the low flow indices obtained. A comparison of indices from the two future periods with the reference period 1971–2000 confirms the trends obtained in previous studies, in the form of a projected decrease in the frequency and intensity of low flow events.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Kotlarski, S.;Keuler, K.;Wulfmeyer, V.
通讯作者：
Wulfmeyer, V.