Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s-2000
Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late Cold War and beyond, 1970s-2000
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-022-03315-0
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发表时间：
2022-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Doose, Katja
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doose, Katja
气候模型是政府、专家和社会根据未来气候行动做出决策的依据。为了说明在全球对大气环流模式的有效性达成共识之前，如何使用不同的模式来解释气候变化和预测未来的气候，本文重点介绍了苏联气候学家和他们的政府试图推动他们的气候模式得到国际气候科学界的认可。它认为苏联的气候科学以及他们对21世纪气候的解释是冷战的产物，并且系统地缺乏高速计算机的使用迫使苏联气候学家使用更简单的气候重建作为类比，这对后苏联俄罗斯的气候科学产生了深远的影响。通过将苏联气候模型的历史与拒绝苏联模型的政府间气候变化专门委员会的早期历史并置，文章揭示了科学与政治的关系。调查结果基于档案和印刷材料以及采访。
Climate models are what governments, experts and societies base their decisions on future climate action on. To show how different models were used to explain climatic changes and to project future climates before the emergence of a global consensus on the validity of general circulation models, this article focuses on the attempt of Soviet climatologists and their government to push for their climate model to be acknowledged by the international climate science community. It argues that Soviet climate sciences as well as their interpretations of the climate of the twenty-first century were products of the Cold War, and that the systematic lack of access to high-speed computers forced Soviet climatologists to use simpler climate reconstructions as analogues, with far-reaching consequences for climate sciences in post-Soviet Russia. By juxtaposing the history of Soviet climate modelling with the early history of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, which rejected the Soviet model, the article sheds light on the relationship of science and politics. The findings are based on archival and print material as well as on interviews.