A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources
A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources
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DOI：
10.1144/sp456.5
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Baptista, Maria Ana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Davies, Gareth;Griffin, Jonathan;Baptista, Maria Ana
大海啸很少发生，但有能力造成大量人员伤亡、对建筑环境和关键基础设施的破坏以及经济损失。需要对海啸危险有充分的了解，以加强对这些风险的管理，虽然海啸危险评估通常是在区域或地方范围内进行的，但需要进行全球一致的评估，以支持国际减少灾害风险的努力，并可作为地方和区域研究的参考。这项研究提出了全球范围的概率海啸危险评估(PTHA)，扩展了以前主要基于情景分析的全球范围评估。只考虑震源，因为它们约占有记录的破坏性海啸事件的80%。在不同的超标率下，得到了海啸上升高度的全球广泛估计，并量化了相关的不确定性。大地震超标率的认知不确定性往往会导致海啸抬头的巨大不确定性。对模拟的海啸启动和事件观测之间的偏差进行了量化，发现偏差比以前的研究建议的要大。考虑到PTHA的这些偏差是重要的，因为它导致了给定超标率下海啸预测的显著增加。
Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.