The Taliban in southern Afghanistan: a localised insurgency with a local objective
The Taliban in southern Afghanistan: a localised insurgency with a local objective
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阿富汗南部的塔利班：具有当地目标的局部叛乱
DOI：
10.1080/09592318.2010.481417
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Peter Dahl Thruelsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Dahl Thruelsen
本文对2008年阿富汗南部的塔利班叛乱进行了深入的描述和分析。它描述了当地叛乱的动态，并认为塔利班不应被视为一个统一的等级行为者，可以作为覆盖整个阿富汗的通用方法的一部分来处理。本文将表明，阿富汗南部的叛乱活动本质上是高度本地化的，很大程度上是由当地指挥官驱动的，而局域网往往以个别指挥官本身为中心。它还将表明，阿富汗当地塔利班和外国巴基斯坦塔利班的叛乱背后的驱动力或原因分别不同。南部叛乱的性质，当地塔利班指挥官通过当地知识网络，以当地确定的理由开展工作，这意味着与塔利班战略领导层的第一层战略层面的“和平协议”不会产生结束叛乱的预期效果——在该国这些地区不会产生整体的多米诺骨牌效应。
This article gives an in-depth description and analysis of the Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan in 2008. It describes the local dynamics of the insurgency and argues that the Taliban should not be seen as a unified hierarchical actor that can be dealt with as part of a generic approach covering the whole of Afghanistan. The article will show that the insurgency in southern Afghanistan is highly localised in nature, being to a large extent driven by local commanders and local area networks often centred on individual commanders themselves. It will also show that the driver or cause behind the insurgency differ for the local Afghan Taliban and the foreign Pakistani Taliban respectively. The nature of the southern insurgency, with the local Taliban commanders working through local knowledge networks with a locally determined cause, implies that a strategic-level ‘peace deal’ with Tier I of the strategic Taliban leadership will not create the desired effect of ending the insurgency – there will not be an overall domino effect in these parts of the country.