Research, part of a Special Feature on New Methods for Adaptive Water Management Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification
Research, part of a Special Feature on New Methods for Adaptive Water Management Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification
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研究是适应性水管理新方法专题的一部分，通过多样化应对洪水管理的不确定性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Werners
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Aerts;W. Botzen;A. Veen;J. Krywkow;S. Werners
本文展示了，通过一个数值例子，如何开发组合的洪水管理活动，在可接受的风险下，在荷兰中部地区产生最高的回报。本文展示了一种基于现代投资组合理论（MPT）的方法，有助于制定洪水管理策略。MPT旨在寻找分散风险的投资组合，从而降低整个投资组合的总体风险。本文表明，通过系统地结合四个不同的防洪措施，在投资组合包含三个或四个措施，风险降低相比，只包含一个或两个措施的投资组合。在投资组合中加入部分不相关的指标可以分散风险。我们展示了MPT如何鼓励系统讨论个人防洪减灾活动的回报和风险之间的关系，以及完整的投资组合的回报和风险。它还表明，它是多么重要，以了解各种洪水管理活动的回报的相关性。因此，MPT方法与适应性水管理的概念非常吻合，后者认为未来具有内在的不确定性。通过将MPT应用于防洪策略，可以通过分散风险来降低当前的脆弱性。
This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies risk. We demonstrate how MPT encourages a systematic discussion of the relationship between the return and risk of individual flood mitigation activities and the return and risk of complete portfolios. It is also shown how important it is to understand the correlation of the returns of various flood management activities. The MPT approach, therefore, fits well with the notion of adaptive water management, which perceives the future as inherently uncertain. Through applying MPT on flood protection strategies current vulnerability will be reduced by diversifying risk.