Improving Causal Inferences in Meta-analyses of Longitudinal Studies: Spanking as an Illustration.
Improving Causal Inferences in Meta-analyses of Longitudinal Studies: Spanking as an Illustration.
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改进纵向研究荟萃分析中的因果推理：以打屁股为例。
DOI：
10.1111/cdev.13097
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ferguson,ChristopherJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Larzelere,RobertE;Gunnoe,MarjorieLindner;Ferguson,ChristopherJ
为了评估和改善来自纵向研究的Meta分析的因果推断的有效性，我们展示了对Time-1结果分数的两个调整和一个时间倒退检验。因果推论将得到两种调整方法的稳健结果的支持，这与向后运行的结果不同。还介绍了一种评估潜在混杂的系统策略。通过评估打屁股对随后的外化问题(儿童年龄：18个月至11岁)的影响来说明这些方法。显著的结果表明，根据调整方法的不同，打屁股的风险或好处都很小。这些元分析方法适用于替代打屁股和其他发展科学主题的研究。这些基本原则还可以改进个别研究中的因果推论。
To evaluate and improve the validity of causal inferences from meta‐analyses of longitudinal studies, two adjustments for Time‐1 outcome scores and a temporally backwards test are demonstrated. Causal inferences would be supported by robust results across both adjustment methods, distinct from results run backwards. A systematic strategy for evaluating potential confounds is also introduced. The methods are illustrated by assessing the impact of spanking on subsequent externalizing problems (child age: 18 months to 11 years). Significant results indicated a small risk or a small benefit of spanking,depending on the adjustment method. These meta‐analytic methods are applicable for research on alternatives to spanking and other developmental science topics. The underlying principles can also improve causal inferences in individual studies.