Demographic trade-offs predict tropical forest dynamics
Demographic trade-offs predict tropical forest dynamics
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aaz4797
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发表时间：
2019-10
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
N. Rüger;R. Condit;D. Dent;S. DeWalt;S. Hubbell;J. W. Lichstein;O. Lopez;C. Wirth;C. Farrior
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Rüger;R. Condit;D. Dent;S. DeWalt;S. Hubbell;J. W. Lichstein;O. Lopez;C. Wirth;C. Farrior
森林动态和人口统计热带森林演替主要是通过考虑早期，中期和晚期演替物种的类别，对应于一个快-慢连续的生活史策略的树木。Rüger等人现在表明，快-慢连续体并没有捕捉到长寿先驱物种的人口战略，这是许多热带森林的重要组成部分（见Bugmann的观点）。他们开发了一种森林模型，可以客观预测热带森林动态，并根据独立数据验证模型的预测。这些研究结果将促进我们对热带森林动态的理解，并促进可持续的热带森林管理。《科学》，本期第165页;另见第128页数据驱动的建模框架提高了我们预测人类活动对热带森林影响后果的能力。了解热带森林的动态和规划其可持续管理需要高效，但准确的预测，数百个树种的联合动态。随着热带树木生命史信息的增加，我们的预测理解不再受物种数据的限制，而是受现有模型利用这些数据的能力的限制。我们表明，在新热带森林的森林演替过程中，断面积和组成的变化可以通过代表热带树木多样性来准确预测（数百个物种）只有五个功能组，跨越两个基本的权衡-生长-生存和状态-招募权衡。这种数据驱动的建模框架大大提高了我们预测人为对热带森林影响后果的能力。
Forest dynamics and demography Tropical forest succession has been viewed mostly by considering trees in categories of early-, mid-, and late-successional species, corresponding to a fast–slow continuum of life history strategies. Rüger et al. now show that the fast–slow continuum does not capture the demographic strategy of the long-lived pioneer species, an important component of many tropical forests (see the Perspective by Bugmann). They developed a forest model that allows for objective predictions of tropical forest dynamics and validated the model's predictions against independent data. These findings should advance our understanding of tropical forest dynamics and facilitate sustainable tropical forest management. Science, this issue p. 165; see also p. 128 A data-driven modeling framework improves our ability to predict the consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests. Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs—the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.