The Sociology of the Future: Tracing Stories of Technology and Time
The Sociology of the Future: Tracing Stories of Technology and Time
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未来的社会学：追踪技术与时间的故事
DOI：
10.1111/j.1751-9020.2008.00147.x
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Matthias Wienroth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matthias Wienroth
未来社会学是一个新兴的研究领域，它致力于从科学技术研究和远见实践的结合中理解未来意识。通过对纳米技术研究中使用的理论、方法和预期困境的探索，这篇文章介绍了未来的社会学，并提出了该领域正在采取的一些定义方式。探索未来时态提供了一种为即将发生的事情承担责任的手段；然而，社会科学进入复杂的未来领域带来了紧张。理解似是而非的可能性，不同的群体如何使用预期知识，以及期望在创新中的表现作用，仍然是充满困境和欢乐的研究领域。随着社会科学家开始编织自己对未来的描述，他们应该注意这种呈现的政治意义。技术影响范围的扩大学术关注新技术的发展，探索我们掌握新技术出现的社会学工具和方法，这不仅是因为技术具有福与祸的双重性质，而且还因为我们对未来的技术影响正在增长。考虑到最近的生物、化学和材料技术，我们生产对社会系统产生持久影响的技术的能力似乎正在增强。纳米技术是这样一个新的技术领域，经常被承诺从根本上改变它对人类、我们的生产系统和我们的环境景观的意义。无论是期望与自然无缝互动、无污染的瞬时生产，还是前所未有的财富和健康，纳米技术都被推动者作为后工业疾病的灵丹妙药提出(Drexler 1986；Roco和Brainbridge 2001；Wood等人)。2003年)。然而，这种厚颜无耻的乐观情绪也被失去控制的自我复制纳米机器人的愿景以及对纳米技术能力的更温和分析所平衡。
The sociology of the future is an emerging field of inquiry that works to understand future consciousness drawing from a mix of Science & Technology Studies and the practice of foresight. Through an exploration of the theories, methodologies, and quagmires of anticipation employed in the study of nanotechnology, this piece introduces the sociology of the future and suggests some ways the field is taking definition. Exploring the future tense provides a means of taking responsibility for what is to come; yet, the movement of the social sciences into the tricky terrain of the future presents tensions. Understanding plausibility, how different communities use anticipatory knowledge, and the performative role of expectations in innovation remain areas of research rich with dilemmas and delights. As social scientists begin to weave their own accounts of futures, they should pay attention to the politics of such rendering. Extension of the technological reach Scholarly attention to the development of new technologies and to exploring the sociologic tools and methods we have for grasping their emergence is exceedingly important not only for the dual nature of technology as blessing and curse, but also because our technological reach into the future is growing. Our ability to produce technologies that have a lasting impact on social systems seems to be growing given the biological, chemical, and material technologies of late. Nanotechnology is one such novel technology area that is regularly promised to radically alter what it means to be human, our systems of production, and our environmental landscapes. Whether expectations of seamless interactions with nature, non-polluting instantaneous production, or unprecedented wealth and health, nanotechnology is presented by promoters as the elixir for post-industrial ills (Drexler 1986; Roco and Brainbridge 2001; Wood et al. 2003). Yet, this brazen optimism is also balanced by visions of self-replicating nanobots out of control and more tempered analyses about nanotechnology’s ability to