Integration of Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning for Coastal Engineering and Climate Change
Integration of Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning for Coastal Engineering and Climate Change
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海岸工程与气候变化决策分析与情景规划的整合
DOI：
10.1109/tsmca.2010.2055154
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
I. Linkov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christopher W. Karvetski;J. Lambert;J. Keisler;I. Linkov
本文开发了一种方法，用于在基础设施政策和投资绩效评估的未来情景中引发偏好变化。该方法量化了各种场景中另类投资组合的稳健性，并确定了对评估有重大影响的场景。该方法的一个创新是，对于每个场景，仅导出价值函数的选定项的重要性的一些相对增加或减少，这比针对每个场景完全导出价值函数更有效。通过我们的方法识别关键场景可用于集中资源密集型且可能成本高昂的建模活动。该方法集成了偏好顺序、质心权重和 Borda 方法。在演示中，该方法评估了可能影响沿海保护绩效的相对海平面和其他气候变化情景。
This paper develops a methodology for eliciting shifts in preference across future scenarios in the performance assessment of infrastructure policies and investments. The methodology quantifies the robustness of alternative portfolios across a variety of scenarios and identifies the scenarios that greatly affect the assessments. An innovation of the methodology is to elicit, for each scenario, only a few relative increases or decreases in importance of selected terms of the value function, which is more efficient than a full elicitation of the value function for each scenario. The identification of critical scenarios via our methodology can be used to focus resource-intensive and potentially costly modeling activities. The methodology integrates preference orders, centroid weights, and the Borda method. In a demonstration, the methodology assesses the relative sea level and other climate-change scenarios that could affect the performance of coastal protections.