Population sex imbalance in China before the One-Child Policy
Population sex imbalance in China before the One-Child Policy
复制标题
独生子女政策前中国人口性别失衡
DOI：
10.4054/demres.2019.40.13
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Grant Miller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Babiarz;P. Ma;Shige Song;Grant Miller
研究目的：中国人口性别失衡的研究大多集中在独生子女政策时期。然而，由于中国的生育率下降发生在20世纪70年代，我们调查的可能性，性别比开始上升，在这一时期（理论预测）之前的独生子女政策。结果如下：通过对1960年至1987年间出生顺序和兄弟姐妹性别构成的性别比例分析，我们发现，在预计对儿子需求最大的夫妇中，在1970年代，出生性别比达到每100个女孩115-121个男孩-这意味着大约840 000比1 100，20世纪70年代中国出生队列中失踪的2000名女孩。重要的是，这些结果似乎不是由活着的女孩或收养情况的差异性低报所驱动的。鉴于1979年之前没有超声波技术，这意味着20世纪70年代中国存在出生后性别选择。贡献：我们的工作对现有文献做出了一些重要贡献。首先，我们关注的是预计对儿子的需求最强烈的夫妇子集：尚未生男孩的高生育率夫妇。第二，我们按一岁（从出生到4岁）估计性别比例，区分婴儿死亡率的差异和女孩在整个童年时期逐渐被忽视的差异。第三，我们结合联合收割机图形和多元统计分析，以测试有意义的不平衡的性别比例。最后，我们衡量了报告活着的女孩，包括收养女孩的潜在违规行为，并对未报告的女性进行了新的估计。
Objective: Most research on population sex imbalance in China has focused on the One-Child Policy era. However, because much of China’s fertility decline occurred during the 1970s, we investigate the possibility that sex ratios began rising during this period (as predicted by theory) before the One-Child Policy. Results: Analyzing sex ratios between 1960 and 1987 by birth order and sibship sex composition, we find that among the subset of couples expected to have the greatest demand for sons (those at higher parities without previous sons), sex ratios at birth reached 115–121 boys per 100 girls during the 1970s – implying approximately 840,000 to 1,100,000 girls missing from Chinese birth cohorts during the 1970s. Importantly, these results do not appear to be driven by differential under-reporting of living girls, or instances of adoption. Given the absence of ultrasound technologies prior to 1979, they imply the presence of postnatal sex selection in China during the 1970s. Contribution: Our work makes several important contributions to existing literature. First, we focus on the subset of couples among whom the demand for sons is predicted to be the strongest: higher parity couples not yet having a boy. Second, we estimate sex ratios by single year of age (from birth to age 4), distinguishing differential rates of infant death from more gradual neglect of girls as they age throughout childhood. Third, we combine graphical and multivariate statistical analyses to test for meaningfully imbalanced sex ratios. Finally, we measure potential irregularities in the reporting of living girls, including the adoption of girls, and we generate new estimates of unreported females.