COMPARISON OF THE WEIBULL MODEL WITH MEASURED WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTIONS FOR STOCHASTIC WIND GENERATION
COMPARISON OF THE WEIBULL MODEL WITH MEASURED WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTIONS FOR STOCHASTIC WIND GENERATION
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DOI：
10.13031/2013.18324
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
S. V. Donk;L. Wagner;E. Skidmore;J. Tatarko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. V. Donk;L. Wagner;E. Skidmore;J. Tatarko
风是风蚀预测系统 (WEPS) 的主要驱动力，该系统是一个基于过程的计算机模型，用于模拟现场风吹沉积物流失。 WEPS 使用随机风力发电机产生风力。本研究的目的是改进风速和风向的随机生成，并使用从美国 48 个相邻州的最新质量控制数据得出的统计数据更新发电机使用的风统计数据。选择侵蚀性风功率密度 (WPD) 来评估风的生成情况，因为它与风引起的沉积物输送成正比。重要的是，根据随机生成的数据 (WPDg) 计算的 WPD 能够准确再现根据基础测量数据 (WPDm) 计算的 WPD。常用的双参数威布尔模型不能很好地拟合风速分布，无法应用于风蚀模型。在 332 个站中，有 168 个站的 WPDg 与 WPDm 的偏差超过 20%，WPDm > 5 W m �2 。仅将模型拟合到高风速，期望得到更好的曲线拟合，导致一些生成的风速超过 100 m s �1 ，这是不可接受的。更直接的方法使用风速分布本身，而不是描述风速分布的威布尔模型。然后使用数据点之间的线性插值直接从分布生成风速。通过这种更稳健的直接方法，只有一个站点（从 168 个站点中减少）WPDg 与 WPDm 的偏差超过 20%。风速生成的直接方法比威布尔模型更准确地再现风速，这对于风蚀预测很重要，并且对于其他应用也可能很重要。
Wind is the principal driver of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), which is a processbased computer model for the simulation of windblown sediment loss from a field. WEPS generates wind using a stochastic wind generator. The objectives of this study were to improve the stochastic generation of wind speed and direction and to update the wind statistics used by the generator with statistics derived from more recent, qualitycontrolled data for the 48 contiguous states of the U.S. Erosive wind power density (WPD) was chosen to evaluate how well wind is generated, since it is proportional to sediment transport by wind. It is important that WPD calculated from stochastically generated data (WPDg) closely reproduces WPD calculated from the underlying measured data (WPDm). The commonly used twoparameter Weibull model did not fit wind speed distributions well enough for application in wind erosion models. WPDg deviated more than 20% from WPDm for 168 out of the 332 stations having WPDm > 5 W m �2 . Fitting the model to the high wind speeds only, with the expectation of a better curve fit, resulted in some generated wind speeds exceeding 100 m s �1 , which is unacceptable. A more direct method uses the wind speed distributions themselves instead of the Weibull model that describes them. Wind speeds are then generated directly from the distributions using linear interpolation between data points. With this more robust direct approach, there was only one station (down from 168 stations) where WPDg deviated more than 20% from WPDm. The direct method of wind speed generation reproduces wind speeds more accurately than the Weibull model, which is important for wind erosion prediction and may be important for other applications as well.