Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012.
Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012.
复制标题
美国强奸的地理集群：2000-2012。
DOI：
10.1080/2330443x.2015.1092899
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kulldorff M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Amin R;Nabors NS;Nelson AM;Saqlain M;Kulldorff M
虽然强奸是一种非常严重的犯罪和公共卫生问题，但尚未尝试在全国范围内对强奸进行空间测绘。本文解决了三个研究问题：（1）报告的强奸案件是随机分布在美国各地，调整后的人口密度和年龄，或有地理集群报告的强奸案件？(2)在对贫困水平的差异进行调整后，报告的强奸案的地理集群是否仍然存在？(3)是否有一些地理集群，导致逮捕的报告强奸案件的比例特别低或特别高？我们研究了美国48个相邻州报告的强奸事件（2003 - 2012）和强奸逮捕（2000 - 2012）的地理变化。疾病监测软件SaTScan ™及其空间扫描统计用于评估油菜的空间变异。空间扫描统计已被广泛用作疾病的地理监测工具，我们用它来确定地理区域的集群报告的强奸和集群的逮捕率强奸。空间扫描统计数据被用来确定报告的强奸发生率特别高的地理区域。这些分析根据年龄进行了调整，在二次分析中，根据年龄和贫困程度进行了调整。我们还确定了导致逮捕的报告强奸案比例低或高的地理区域。我们确定了报告强奸案发生率特别高（低）的地理区域。确定的地理问题地区是公共卫生，社会服务和执法机构进行更深入的预防咨询和刑事起诉工作的主要候选人，报告强奸率高的地理集群是需要扩大实施预防措施的主要地区，例如改变我们社会对强奸犯罪的态度，此外，刑事司法系统还在预防强奸方面发挥更大的作用。
While rape is a very serious crime and public health problem, no spatial mapping has been attempted for rape on the national scale. This paper addresses the three research questions: (1) Are reported rape cases randomly distributed across the USA, after being adjusted for population density and age, or are there geographical clusters of reported rape cases? (2) Are the geographical clusters of reported rapes still present after adjusting for differences in poverty levels? (3) Are there geographical clusters where the proportion of reported rape cases that lead to an arrest is exceptionally low or exceptionally high? We studied the geographical variation of reported rape events (2003-2012) and rape arrests (2000-2012) in the 48 contiguous states of the USA. The disease Surveillance software SaTScan™ with its spatial scan statistic is used to evaluate the spatial variation in rapes. The spatial scan statistic has been widely used as a geographical surveillance tool for diseases, and we used it to identify geographical areas with clusters of reported rape and clusters of arrest rates for rape. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify geographical areas with exceptionally high rates of reported rape. The analyses were adjusted for age, and in secondary analyses, for both age and poverty level. We also identified geographical areas with either a low or a high proportion of reported rapes leading to an arrest. We have identified geographical areas with exceptionally high (low) rates of reported rape. The geographical problem areas identified are prime candidates for more intensive preventive counseling and criminal prosecution efforts by public health, social service, and law enforcement agencies Geographical clusters of high rates of reported rape are prime areas in need of expanded implementation of preventive measures, such as changing attitudes in our society toward rape crimes, in addition to having the criminal justice system play an even larger role in preventing rape.