Land Use Change and Prediction for Valuating Carbon Sequestration in Viti Levu Island, Fiji
Land Use Change and Prediction for Valuating Carbon Sequestration in Viti Levu Island, Fiji
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DOI：
10.3390/land11081274
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发表时间：
2022-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Sakti, Anjar Dimara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Avtar, Ram;Rinamalo, Apisai Vakacegu;Sakti, Anjar Dimara
本研究探讨土地利用的变化，并评估过去和预计的森林固碳及其估值在维提岛，斐济，通过遥感与地理空间为基础的建模方法相结合。利用2000年和2020年的Landsat 7和Landsat 8图像进行土地利用分类;然后，进行元胞自动机和人工神经网络（CA-ANN）建模，以预测2040年的土地利用图。在生态系统权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型中，使用过去、现在和未来（2000年、2020年和2040年）的土地利用图估算了碳封存和经济价值。结果表明，近20年来，中国森林面积持续减少，2040年森林面积将继续减少，其中农业用地的减少是主要原因。当地社区的看法证实，由于对肥沃土地的需求，将森林转为农田的情况将持续下去。该研究估计，2000-2020年期间，由于森林砍伐，森林碳损失为-733.7兆吨（Mt C），经济损失为-1369.38百万美元。如果一切照旧的情况在不久的将来没有改变，预计未来20年的潜在碳损失为-7.959 Mt C。预测结果可用于帮助作为一个参考，建立一个国家的基线和参考水平，在斐济实施降排+机制和可持续管理有限的原始森林，通过实施与森林有关的方案。
This study examines land use changes and evaluates the past and projected forest carbon sequestration and its valuation in Viti Levu Island, Fiji, through a combination of remote sensing with a geospatial-based modeling approach. Land use classification was performed using Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 imageries of the years 2000 and 2020; then, cellular automata and artificial neural network (CA-ANN) modeling was conducted to predict the land use map of 2040. Carbon sequestration and the economic valuation were estimated using the land use maps of the past, present, and future (2000, 2020, and 2040) within the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystems Trade-off (InVEST) model. The results showed that deforestation occurred during the past two decades, and the forest area was predicted to keep decreasing in 2040, with the major contribution from the conversion to the agricultural area. Local communities' perceptions confirmed that the forest conversion to croplands would persist due to the demand for fertile lands. This study estimated a loss of -7.337 megatonnes of forest carbon (Mt C) with an economic loss of USD -1369.38 million during 2000-2020 due to deforestation. If the business-as-usual scenario does not change in the near future, a potential carbon loss of -7.959 Mt C is predicted in the upcoming 20 years. The predicted results can be used to assist as a reference in establishing a national baseline and reference level for implementing the REDD+ mechanism in Fiji and sustainably managing the limited pristine forest by implementing forest-related programs.