The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep
The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1067475
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发表时间：
2002-01-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
McLean, AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kao, RR;Gravenor, MB;McLean, AR
因为有一个理论上的可能性，英国国家羊群感染牛海绵状脑病（BSE），我们检查了一个假定的流行病的程度。根据英国受感染牛的数量、牛和羊对疯牛病的剂量反应、受感染饲料的暴露水平和疯牛病易感羊的数量进行的年龄组群分析表明，在1990年假定的流行高峰期，疯牛病感染羊的病例数量在不到10只到约1500只之间。该模型预测，如果母体传播率为10%，2001年绵羊中的BSE临床病例预计将少于20例。尽管参数估计存在很大的不确定性，但所有迹象都表明目前的流行率很低;然而，一个简单的牛海绵状脑病群间传播模型表明，如果发生水平传播，最终可能导致大规模流行。
Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.