Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage
Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enconman.2013.12.016
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发表时间：
2014-03
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Boqiang Lin;Xiaoling Ouyang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boqiang Lin;Xiaoling Ouyang
在当前城镇化阶段，中国的能源需求呈现出刚性增长的特点。本文运用面板数据模型和协整模型检验了中国能源需求的决定因素，并在情景分析的基础上对中国的能源需求进行了预测。结果表明，从长期来看，能源需求与经济增长之间呈倒U型关系。在一切照旧的情况下，2030年中国的能源消费将达到64.9307亿吨煤当量。在比较美国和中国的特点的基础上，可以得出结论。首先，在快速城市化阶段，能源需求具有刚性增长特征。其次，中国以煤炭为主的能源结构将导致严重的二氧化碳排放问题。第三，经济快速增长要求能源价格不能大幅上涨，使节能成为中国低碳转型的重大战略。主要的政策含义是：第一，城镇化可以作为低碳发展的机会；第二，能源价格改革对中国的能源可持续性至关重要。
China’s energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China’s energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China’s energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO2emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China’s low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China’s energy sustainability.