Near-field tsunami forecasting using offshore tsunami data from the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
Near-field tsunami forecasting using offshore tsunami data from the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
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DOI：
10.5047/eps.2011.06.052
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发表时间：
2011-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Tsushima;K. Hirata;Y. Hayashi;Y. Tanioka;K. Kimura;S. Sakai;M. Shinohara;T. Kanazawa;R. Hino;K. Maeda
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文献类型：
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作者：
H. Tsushima;K. Hirata;Y. Hayashi;Y. Tanioka;K. Kimura;S. Sakai;M. Shinohara;T. Kanazawa;R. Hino;K. Maeda
2011 年东北地震（兆瓦级 9.0）太平洋沿岸发生海啸时，多个沿海验潮站观察到海啸高度超过 4 m，造成数千人伤亡，并破坏了日本太平洋沿岸的基础设施。我们回顾性地将近场海啸预报算法应用于海啸到达离其源头最近的沿海验潮站前 5-10 分钟在各个近海海啸站记录的海啸数据。我们对近海记录的波形数据进行反演，估计初始海面高度的分布，然后根据估计的源合成海啸波形，以预测海啸到达沿海验潮站的时间和幅度。震后20分钟进行回顾性应用，距离震源最近的验潮站预测将发生高度为6-14m的海啸，25分钟后实际海啸导致的海平面上升开始超过1m。结果表明，我们使用的预测方法可能有助于针对 9 级地震发布可靠的近场海啸警报。
Tsunami heights greater than 4 m were observed at several coastal tide-gauge stations during the tsunami generated by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0), causing thousands of casualties and damaging infrastructure along the Pacific coast of Japan. We retrospectively applied an algorithm of near-field tsunami forecasting to tsunami data that were recorded at various offshore tsunami stations 5–10 min before the tsunami reached the coastal tide-gauge stations nearest to its source. We inverted the waveform data recorded offshore to estimate the distribution of the initial sea-surface height, and then tsunami waveforms were synthesized from the estimated source to forecast tsunami arrival times and amplitudes at coastal tide-gauge stations. As a result of a retrospective application made 20 min after the earthquake, tsunamis with heights of 6–14 m were forecasted at tide-gauge stations nearest to the source where the sea-level increase due to the actual tsunami began to exceed 1 m after an elapsed time of 25 min. The result suggests a possibility that the forecasting method we used could contribute to the issuing of reliable near-field tsunami warning for Mw 9 earthquakes.