Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C
Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2017.02.008
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hof, Andries F.;den Elzen, Michel G. J.;van Vuuren, Detlef P.
作为巴黎气候协定的一部分，各国提交了（预期）国家自主贡献（NDC），其中包括2020年以后的温室气体减排提案。在本文中，我们应用IMAGE综合评估模型来估计实现NDC减排目标的年度减排成本，以及如果各国将目标保持在全球变暖远低于2摄氏度并“努力”达到1.5摄氏度的额外成本。我们发现，减排成本对社会经济假设非常敏感：在经济增长缓慢、人口快速增长和高度不平等的共享社会经济途径3（SSP 3）假设下，到2030年实现无条件NDC的全球减排成本估计为1350亿美元，是SSP 1更可持续的社会经济假设下的两倍多。此外，我们预计，全面实施有条件的NDC的额外成本是巨大的，根据社会经济假设，从400亿美元到550亿美元不等。在10个主要排放经济体中，巴西、加拿大和美国预计实施有条件NDC的成本占GDP的比例最高，而日本、中国、俄罗斯和印度的成本相对较低。允许排放交易可以大幅降低全球成本，无条件NDC的成本可以降低一半以上，有条件NDC的成本几乎可以降低一半。最后，实现2030年与2摄氏度路径一致的排放水平所需的减排成本至少是实现有条件NDC的成本的三倍--尽管减排量需要两倍。对于1.5摄氏度，成本将是5-6倍。(C)2017作者爱思唯尔有限公司出版
As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 degrees C and "pursue efforts" towards 1.5 degrees C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 degrees C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs - even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 degrees C, the costs would be 5-6 times as high. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.