The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia
The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.007
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ancev, Tihomir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Csereldyei, Zsuzsanna;Qu, Songze;Ancev, Tihomir
我们的论文调查了2010-2018年风力和公用事业规模的太阳能发电对澳大利亚批发电价的影响。我们使用澳大利亚国家电力市场（NEM）的高频（30分钟）和每日数据集。我们估计自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）分解风力和公用事业规模的太阳能光伏发电随着时间的推移和跨州的优序效应。我们发现，额外的风电装机容量可使发电时的批发电价降低11澳元/兆瓦时，而太阳能装机容量则降低14澳元/兆瓦时。每日的功德令效果较低。我们发现，风优序效应一直在增加作为一个函数的分派风力发电能力随着时间的推移。尽管如此，澳大利亚的批发电价一直在上涨，主要是受天然气价格上涨的推动。我们的研究结果进一步加强了可再生能源的优序效应的证据，对澳大利亚当前的能源政策辩论具有重要意义。
Our paper investigates the effect of wind and utility-scale solar electricity generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia over 2010-2018. We use both high frequency (30-min) and daily datasets for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We estimate autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) to decompose the merit order effect of wind and utility-scale solar PV generation over time and across states. We find that an extra GW of dispatched wind capacity decreases the wholesale electricity price by 11 AUD/MWh at the time of generation, while solar capacity by 14 AUD/MWh. The daily merit order effect is lower. We show that the wind merit order effect has been increasing as a function of dispatched wind capacity over time. Despite of this, wholesale electricity prices in Australia have been increasing, predominantly driven by the increase in natural gas prices. Our findings further strengthen the evidence of the merit order effect of renewable energy sources, with important implications for the current energy policy debate in Australia.