A Puzzle About Stalnaker’s Hypothesis
A Puzzle About Stalnaker’s Hypothesis
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关于斯塔纳克假说的一个谜题
DOI：
10.1007/s11245-010-9082-3
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Dietz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Douven;R. Dietz
根据Stalnaker的假设，陈述性条件句的概率$$\Pr（\varphi \rightarrow \psi）$$等于后件条件句在其前件上的概率$$\Pr（\psi|\varphi）$$ .虽然这一假设通常被刘易斯和其他人的琐碎论点所否定，但它的描述性充分性已在许多实验研究中得到证实。在本文中，我们考虑了一些可能的方法来解决与Stalnaker假说有关的分析和实证结果之间的明显紧张关系，我们认为没有一个提供令人满意的解决方案。
According to Stalnaker’s Hypothesis, the probability of an indicative conditional, $$\Pr(\varphi \rightarrow \psi),$$ equals the probability of the consequent conditional on its antecedent, $$\Pr(\psi | \varphi)$$ . While the hypothesis is generally taken to have been conclusively refuted by Lewis’ and others’ triviality arguments, its descriptive adequacy has been confirmed in many experimental studies. In this paper, we consider some possible ways of resolving the apparent tension between the analytical and the empirical results relating to Stalnaker’s Hypothesis and we argue that none offer a satisfactory resolution.