Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model
Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model
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应用泊松回归模型对西北太平洋台风发生频率的季节预测
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3654-5
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Li, Yun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Xinchang;Zhong, Shanshan;Li, Yun
利用1965-2015年的观测资料，对西北太平洋（WNP）优势季节（7 - 10月）的台风发生频率（TGF）进行了研究。特别令人感兴趣的是TGF和相关的太平洋季前海表温度（SST）的可预测性。结果发现，TGF与北太平洋4月海温异常的三极型正相关（NPTApr），而与澳大利亚东海岸珊瑚海海温异常负相关（CSSTApr）。NPTApr导致了北太平洋上空的大型异常气旋环流。异常西南风减弱了东北信风，减少了蒸发量，在热带北太平洋中部诱发了暖水。因此，暖化效应放大了热带中部北太平洋的温度梯度，从而维持了热带西部太平洋的气旋风异常，有利于西太平洋台风的发生。在南太平洋，CSSTApr通过(a)加强跨赤道气流和增强热带辐合带支持西太平洋的台风形成；(b)东南和东北信风减弱，热带太平洋中部持续变暖。NPTApr和CSSTApr的影响都能持续影响热带太平洋的纬向风，并在台风季诱发有利于台风发生的条件。利用NPTApr和CSSTApr建立了一个泊松回归模型来预测TGF，并取得了很好的效果。
This study investigates the typhoon genesis frequency (TGF) in the dominant season (July to October) in Western North Pacific (WNP) using observed data in 1965-2015. Of particular interest is the predictability of the TGF and associated preseason sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific. It is found that, the TGF is positively related to a tri-polar pattern of April SST anomalies in North Pacific (NPTApr), while it is negatively related to SST anomalies over the Coral Sea (CSSTApr) off east coast of Australia. The NPTApr leads to large anomalous cyclonic circulation over North Pacific. The anomalous southwesterly weakens the northeast trade wind, decreases evaporation, and induces warm water in central tropical North Pacific. As such, the warming effect amplifies the temperature gradient in central tropical North Pacific, which in turn maintains the cyclonic wind anomaly in the west tropical Pacific, which favors the typhoon genesis in WNP. In the South Pacific, the CSSTApr supports the typhoon formation over the WNP by (a) strengthening the cross-equatorial flows and enhancing the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone; (b) weakening southeast and northeast trade wind, and keeping continuous warming in the center of tropical Pacific. The influence of both NPTApr and CSSTApr can persistently affect the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific and induce conditions favorable for the typhoon genesis in the typhoon season. A Poisson regression model using NPTApr and CSSTApr is developed to predict the TGF and a promising skill is achieved.