Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
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1990 - 2013年期间，全球，区域和国家发病率和死亡率在2013年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析。
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60844-8
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发表时间：
2014-09-13
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Vos, Theo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murray, Christopher J. L.;Ortblad, Katrina F.;Guinovart, Caterina;Lim, Stephen S.;Wolock, Timothy M.;Roberts, D. Allen;Dansereau, Emily A.;Graetz, Nicholas;Barber, Ryan M.;Brown, Jonathan C.;Wang, Haidong;Duber, Herbert C.;Naghavi, Mohsen;Dicker, Daniel;Dandona, Lalit;Salomon, Joshua A.;Heuton, Kyle R.;Foreman, Kyle;Phillips, David E.;Fleming, Thomas D.;Flaxman, Abraham D.;Phillips, Bryan K.;Johnson, Elizabeth K.;Coggeshall, Megan S.;Abd-Allah, Foad;Abera, Semaw Ferede;Abraham, Jerry P.;Abubakar, Ibrahim;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me;Achoki, Tom;Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi;Adou, Arsene Kouablan;Adsuar, Jose C.;Agardh, Emilie Elisabet;Akena, Dickens;Al Kahbouri, Mazin J.;Alasfoor, Deena;Albittar, Mohammed I.;Alcala-Cerra, Gabriel;Angel Alegretti, Miguel;Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw;Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael;Alhabib, Samia;Ali, Raghib;Alla, Francois;Allen, Peter J.;Alsharif, Ubai;Alvarez, Elena;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson;Amankwaa, Adansi A.;Amare, Azmeraw T.;Amini, Hassan;Ammar, Walid;Anderson, Benjamin O.;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.;Anwari, Palwasha;Arnlov, Johan;Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic;Artaman, Ali;Asghar, Rana J.;Assadi, Reza;Atkins, Lydia S.;Badawi, Alaa;Balakrishnan, Kalpana;Banerjee, Amitava;Basu, Sanjay;Beardsley, Justin;Bekele, Tolesa;Bell, Michelle L.;Bernabe, Eduardo;Beyene, Tariku Jibat;Bhala, Neeraj;Bhalla, Ashish;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.;Bin Abdulhak, Aref;Binagwaho, Agnes;Blore, Jed D.;Basara, Berrak Bora;Bose, Dipan;Brainin, Michael;Breitborde, Nicholas;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.;Catala-Lopez, Ferran;Chadha, Vineet K.;Chang, Jung-Chen;Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia;Chuang, Ting-Wu;Colomar, Mercedes;Cooper, Leslie Trumbull;Cooper, Cyrus;Courville, Karen J.;Cowie, Benjamin C.;Criqui, Michael H.;Dandona, Rakhi;Dayama, Anand;De Leo, Diego;Degenhardt, Louisa;Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja;Deribe, Kebede;Des Jarlais, Don C.;Dessalegn, Muluken;Dharmaratne, Samath D.;Dilmen, Ugur;Ding, Eric L.;Driscoll, Tim R.;Durrani, Adnan M.;Ellenbogen, Richard G.;Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich;Esteghamati, Alireza;Faraon, Emerito Jose A.;Farzadfar, Farshad;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad;Fijabi, Daniel Obadare;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.;Paleo, Urbano Fra;Gaffikin, Lynne;Gamkrelidze, Amiran;Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho;Geleijnse, Johanna M.;Gessner, Bradford D.;Gibney, Katherine B.;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed;Glaser, Elizabeth L.;Gona, Philimon;Goto, Atsushi;Gouda, Hebe N.;Gugnani, Harish Chander;Gupta, Rajeev;Gupta, Rahul;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi;Hammami, Mouhanad;Hankey, Graeme J.;Harb, Hilda L.;Maria Haro, Josep;Havmoeller, Rasmus;Hay, Simon I.;Hedayati, Mohammad T.;Heredia Pi, Ileana B.;Hoek, Hans W.;Hornberger, John C.;Hosgood, H. Dean;Hotez, Peter J.;Hoy, Damian G.;Huang, John J.;Iburg, Kim M.;Idrisov, Bulat T.;Innos, Kaire;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.;Jeemon, Panniyammakal;Jensen, Paul N.;Jha, Vivekanand;Jiang, Guohong;Jonas, Jost B.;Juel, Knud;Kan, Haidong;Kankindi, Ida;Karam, Nadim E.;Karch, Andre;Karema, Corine Kakizi;Kaul, Anil;Kawakami, Norito;Kazi, Dhruv S.;Kemp, Andrew H.;Kengne, Andre Pascal;Keren, Andre;Kereselidze, Maia;Khader, Yousef Saleh;Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan;Khan, Ejaz Ahmed;Khang, Young-Ho;Khonelidze, Irma;Kinfu, Yohannes;Kinge, Jonas M.;Knibbs, Luke;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Kosen, S.;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate;Kulkarni, Veena S.;Kulkarni, Chanda;Kumar, Kaushalendra;Kumar, Ravi B.;Kumar, G. Anil;Kwan, Gene F.;Lai, Taavi;Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana;Lam, Hilton;Lan, Qing;Lansingh, Van C.;Larson, Heidi J.;Larsson, Anders;Lee, Jong-Tae;Leigh, James;Leinsalu, Mall;Leung, Ricky;Li, Yichong;Li, Yongmei;Ferreira De Lima, Graca Maria;Lin, Hsien-Ho;Lipshultz, Steven E.;Liu, Shiwei;Liu, Yang;Lloyd, Belinda K.;Lotufo, Paulo A.;Pedro Machado, Vasco Manuel;Maclachlan, Jennifer H.;Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos;Majdan, Marek;Mapoma, Christopher Chabila;Marcenes, Wagner;Barrieotos Marzan, Melvin;Masci, Joseph R.;Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq;Mason-Jones, Amanda J.;Mayosi, Bongani M.;Mazorodze, Tasara T.;Mckay, Abigail Cecilia;Meaney, Peter A.;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan;Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola;Melaku, Yohannes Adama;Memish, Ziad A.;Mendoza, Walter;Miller, Ted R.;Mills, Edward J.;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin;Mokdad, Ali H.;Mola, Glen Liddell;Monasta, Lorenzo;Montico, Marcella;Moore, Ami R.;Mori, Rintaro;Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora;Mukaigawara, Mitsuru;Murthy, Kinnari S.;Naheed, Aliya;Naidoo, Kovin S.;Naldi, Luigi;Nangia, Vinay;Narayan, K. M. Venkat;Nash, Denis;Nejjari, Chakib;Nelson, Robert G.;Neupane, Sudan Prasad;Newton, Charles R.;Ng, Marie;Nisar, Muhammad Imran;Nolte, Sandra;Norheim, Ole F.;Nowaseb, Vincent;Nyakarahuka, Luke;Oh, In-Hwan;Ohkubo, Takayoshi;Olusanya, Bolajoko O.;Omer, Saad B.;Opio, John Nelson;Orisakwe, Orish Ebere;Pandian, Jeyaraj D.;Papachristou, Christina;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.;Patten, Scott B.;Paul, Vinod K.;Pavlin, Boris Igor;Pearce, Neil;Pereira, David M.;Pervaiz, Aslam;Pesudovs, Konrad;Petzold, Max;Pourmalek, Farshad;Qato, Dima;Quezada, Amado D.;Quistberg, D. Alex;Rafay, Anwar;Rahimi, Kazem;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa;Rahman, Sajjad Ur;Raju, Murugesan;Rana, Saleem M.;Razavi, Homie;Reilly, Robert Quentin;Remuzzi, Giuseppe;Richardus, Jan Hendrik;Ronfani, Luca;Roy, Nobhojit;Sabin, Nsanzimana;Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali;Samonte, Genesis May J.;Sawhney, Monika;Schneider, Ione J. C.;Schwebel, David C.;Seedat, Soraya;Sepanlou, Sadaf G.;Servan-Mori, Edson E.;Sheikhbahaei, Sara;Shibuya, Kenji;Shin, Hwashin Hyun;Shiue, Ivy;Shivakoti, Rupak;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora;Silberberg, Donald H.;Silva, Andrea P.;Simard, Edgar P.;Singh, Jasvinder A.;Skirbekk, Vegard;Sliwa, Karen;Soneji, Samir;Soshnikov, Sergey S.;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos;Swaminathan, Soumya;Sykes, Bryan L.;Tabb, Karen M.;Talongwa, Roberto Tchio;Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman;Thomson, Alan J.;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.;Towbin, Jeffrey A.;Traebert, Jefferson;Tran, Bach X.;Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis;Uchendu, Uche S.;Ukwaja, Kingsley N.;Uzun, Selen Begum;Vallely, Andrew J.;Vasankari, Tommi J.;Venketasubramanian, N.;Violante, Francesco S.;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich;Vollset, Stein Emil;Waller, Stephen;Wallin, Mitchell T.;Wang, Linhong;Wang, XiaoRong;Wang, Yanping;Weichenthal, Scott;Weiderpass, Elisabete;Weintraub, Robert G.;Westerman, Ronny;White, Richard A.;Wilkinson, James D.;Williams, Thomas Neil;Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret;Wong, John Q.;Xu, Gelin;Yang, Yong C.;Yano, Yuichiro;Yentur, Gokalp Kadri;Yip, Paul;Yonemoto, Naohiro;Yoon, Seok-Jun;Younis, Mustafa;Yu, Chuanhua;Jin, Kim Yun;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed;Zhao, Yong;Zheng, Yingfeng;Zhou, Maigeng;Zhu, Jun;Zou, Xiao Nong;Lopez, Alan D.;Vos, Theo
2000年的《千年宣言》通过制定千年发展目标6，引起了全球对艾滋病毒、结核病和疟疾的特别关注。《2013年全球疾病负担研究》为1990年至2013年期间的疾病估计提供了一致和全面的方法，并提供了一个评估自《千年宣言》以来是否出现了加速进展的机会。为了估计艾滋病毒的发病率和死亡率，我们使用了UNAIDS Spectrum模型，该模型基于对现有的有无抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART）死亡率研究的系统回顾进行了适当修改。对于集中的流行病，我们校准了频谱模型，以适应因艾滋病毒死亡分类错误而校正的重要登记数据。在一般流行病中，我们最小化损失函数以选择与全因死亡率的流行率数据和人口统计数据最一致的流行病曲线。我们分析了艾滋病毒的反事实情景，以评估通过预防母婴传播（PMTCT）和抗逆转录病毒治疗挽救的生命年数。对于结核病，我们分析了生命登记和死因推断数据，以使用死因总体建模估计死亡率。我们使用贝叶斯元回归分析了纠正的病例通知数据、关于病例检出率的专家意见、患病率调查和估计的病因特异性死亡率，以生成所有参数的一致趋势。我们分析了疟疾死亡率和发病率，使用最新的死因数据库，死因推断验证研究疟疾的系统分析，以及最近的研究（2010-13）的发病率，耐药性，以及经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐的覆盖率。2013年，全球有180万例新的艾滋病毒感染（95%不确定性区间为170万至210万），2920万例艾滋病毒流行病例（281万至317万），130万例艾滋病毒死亡（13万至15万）。在2005年疫情高峰期，艾滋病毒造成170万人死亡（160万至190万人）。集中在拉丁美洲和东欧的流行病大大少于以前的估计。通过预防母婴传播和抗逆转录病毒疗法等干预措施，在发展中国家挽救了1910万生命年（1660万至2150万），占70.3%（65.4至76.1）。从2000年到2011年，发展中国家艾滋病毒卫生发展援助与通过干预措施挽救的生命年数之比为4 498美元。2013年，包括艾滋病毒阳性者在内，所有形式的结核病发病率为750万（740万至770万），患病率为1190万（1160万至1220万），死亡人数为140万（130万至150万）。同年，仅在艾滋病毒阴性的个人中，所有形式的结核病发病率为710万（690万至730万），患病率为1120万（1080万至1160万），死亡人数为130万（120万至140万）。发病率、患病率和死亡率的年变化率（ARC）在2000年后变为负值。艾滋病毒阴性个体中的结核病不成比例地发生在男性和男孩中（与女性和女孩相比）; 64.0%的病例（63.6至64.3）和64.7%的死亡（60.8至70.3）。在全球范围内，疟疾病例和死亡人数从1990年起迅速增加，2003年达到高峰，达2.32亿例（1.43亿至3.87亿），2004年死亡120万例（110万至140万）。自2004年以来，撒哈拉以南非洲的疟疾儿童死亡率下降了31.5%（从15.7%下降到44.1%）。在非洲以外，疟疾死亡率自1990年以来一直在稳步下降。我们对艾滋病毒感染者人数的估计比联合国艾滋病规划署2012年的估计少了18.7%。疟疾患者人数比世卫组织估计的要多。自2000年以来，感染艾滋病毒、结核病或疟疾的人数都有所减少。在全球一级，疟疾和艾滋病毒死亡人数上升的趋势已经扭转，结核病死亡人数下降的速度加快。101个国家（其中74个是发展中国家）的艾滋病毒感染率仍在上升。自《千年宣言》以来取得的重大进展是全球行动产生效果的令人鼓舞的迹象。比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会。
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration. To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.