Urban growth and decline: Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990–2010
Urban growth and decline: Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990–2010
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DOI：
10.1177/0969776417694680
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发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Manuel Wolff;Thorsten Wiechmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Manuel Wolff;Thorsten Wiechmann
21世纪世纪初，城市萎缩现象在欧洲各地引起广泛讨论。大多数欧洲国家的人口日益老龄化，国内人口从不发达地区向竞争力较强的地区移徙。自进入世纪以来，与过去不同的是，关于萎缩的原因和影响以及政策和规划战略的文章很多。然而，从跨国比较的角度来看，知识状况相当差，因为迄今为止，研究基本上是分析大城市，经验证据几乎没有将注意力转移到对地方动态的背景影响上。在此背景下，本文填补了宏观理论概念化和实证观察之间的差距，通过测试一个启发式模型的城市萎缩，包括整个范围内的欧洲城市。本文质疑城市萎缩在持续时间和分布方面在多大程度上代表了欧洲更广泛的趋势，并旨在调查经济和人口驱动因素对欧洲城市萎缩非线性演变的影响。因此，1990年至2010年期间欧洲城市萎缩城市不同轨迹的空间分布将在一项综合调查中呈现，该调查显示，20%的欧洲城市在1990年至2010年期间经历了萎缩，而883个城市面临近期萎缩。
At the beginning of the 21st century, the phenomenon of shrinking cities was widely discussed across Europe. Most European countries saw an increasingly ageing population and an internal migration from underdeveloped to more competitive locations. Since the turn of the century, and in contrast to the past, a great deal has been written about the causes and impacts of shrinkage, as well as about policies and planning strategies. However, the state of knowledge in a cross-national comparative perspective is rather poor because, to date, studies have basically analysed large cities and empirical evidence hardly shifts attention to the contextual influence on local dynamics. Against this background, this paper fills the gap between macrotheoretical conceptualisation and empirical observation by testing a heuristic model of urban shrinkage encompassing the whole range of cities in Europe. The paper questions to what extent urban shrinkage represents a broader trend in Europe in terms of both duration and distribution, and aims to investigate the influence of economic and demographic drivers on the non-linear evolution of shrinking cities in Europe. Thereby, the spatial distribution of different trajectories of shrinking cities in urban Europe in the period from 1990 to 2010 will be presented in a comprehensive survey which reveals that 20% of European cities experienced shrinkage between 1990 and 2010, whereas 883 cities face recent shrinkage.