Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations
Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2014746118
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发表时间：
2021-02-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Goldman, Noreen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrasfay, Theresa;Goldman, Noreen
根据美国疾病控制和预防中心的数据，2019冠状病毒病在美国造成了惊人的死亡人数：到2020年10月中旬，死亡人数超过21.5万人。黑人和拉丁裔美国人在COVID-19发病率和死亡率方面承受着不成比例的负担，反映出持续存在的结构性不平等，增加了接触COVID-19的风险和感染者的死亡风险。我们估计了2020年美国总人口、种族和民族的出生时和65岁时的预期寿命，使用了四种死亡情景——一种没有发生COVID-19大流行，三种包括健康指标与评估研究所（Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation）编制的COVID-19死亡率预测。我们的中位数估计表明，美国出生时的预期寿命将减少1.13岁至77.48岁，低于2003年以来的任何一年。我们还预测，65岁时的预期寿命将减少0.87岁。据估计，黑人和拉丁裔人口在出生时的预期寿命将分别下降2.10岁和3.05岁，两者都是白人0.68岁的数倍。这些预测表明，黑人和白人的预期寿命差距将扩大近40%，从3.6岁增加到5岁以上，从而抵消了自2006年以来在缩小这一差距方面取得的进展。拉丁美洲人的死亡率一直低于白人（这种现象被称为拉丁裔或西班牙裔悖论），他们将看到他们超过3岁的生存优势减少到不到1岁。
COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths-one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black-White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.