Data analysis and integrated modeling of compound flooding impacts on coastal drainage infrastructure under a changing climate
Data analysis and integrated modeling of compound flooding impacts on coastal drainage infrastructure under a changing climate
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气候变化下复合洪水对沿海排水基础设施影响的数据分析和综合建模
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128823
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Merrifield, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sangsefidi, Yousef;Bagheri, Kian;Davani, Hassan;Merrifield, Mark
低洼的沿海地区容易受到来自海洋、地下和地表来源的多种类型的洪水的影响。降雨事件与高海平面同时发生，使沿海地下水位同时升高，可能导致复合洪水事件，其范围和危险性可能比单独的洪水源大得多。以帝国海滩作为加州的一个低海拔沿海社区为研究对象，提出了一种确定沿海雨水排放系统在气候变化条件下对海水、地下水和暴雨洪水的脆弱性的通用方法。虽然海洋淹没本身，预计到2100年，在最悲观的情况下（即上升2米），只有7%的研究区域被淹没，我们的研究结果表明，超过20%的研究区域的地下雨水排放系统已经在目前的海平面下的地下洪水的风险。虽然随着海平面上升，海岸线附近的海洋淹没是一个令人担忧的问题，但结果表明，海水侵入雨水排放系统可能会影响距离海岸线数公里的地区。由于地下水通过系统缺陷渗入，导致雨水排放系统资源不足，从而加剧了海平面上升（SLR）的后果。因此，在理想的系统中，当前海平面上升2米，洪水量可能会增加一倍（即，没有缺陷），而在稍微有缺陷的雨水排放系统（系统范围内的孔隙率为0.25%）中，该比率可增加六倍。雨水排放系统性能的连续模拟表明，在这些情况下，洪水事件将更具破坏性和更频繁。
Low-lying coastal areas are susceptible to multiple types of flooding from marine, subsurface, and surface sources. The co-occurrence of a rainfall event with high sea level, which raises coastal groundwater tables conjointly, may result in a compound flooding event, which could be much more widespread and dangerous than that of an individual flooding source. Focusing on Imperial Beach as a low-elevation coastal community in California, this paper provides a generalized methodology to determine the vulnerability of coastal stormdrain systems to compound seawater, groundwater, and stormwater flooding under a changing climate. Although marine inundation by itself is expected to flood only 7% of the study area by 2100 under the most pessimistic scenario (i.e. 2 m rise), our results show that more than 20% of the study area's subterranean stormdrain system is already at the risk of subsurface flooding at current sea levels. While marine inundation is a concern near the coastline as sea level rises, the results show that seawater intrusion into the stormdrain system can impact areas kilometers away from the coastline. The consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) can be exacerbated by an under-resourced stormdrain system, caused by groundwater infiltration through system defects. As such, by a 2 m rise in current sea-level, the flooding volume may double in an ideal system (i.e., no defects) while this ratio can increase six fold in a slightly defective stormdrain system (with 0.25 % porosity systemwide). The continuous simulations of the stormdrain system performance indicate that flood events will be more destructive and frequent under these circumstances.