The impact of war on trade: An interrupted times-series study
The impact of war on trade: An interrupted times-series study
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343301038004003
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发表时间：
2001-07-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Carter, JR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderton, CH;Carter, JR
“贸易促进和平”的假设基于三个前提：（1）社会从其贸易关系中获得显著的经济收益;（2）社会之间的严重冲突破坏了贸易;（3）前提1和前提2进入了政治决策者的计算。如果这三个前提中的任何一个不成立，贸易与和平之间的自由联系就被打破了。在最近对七个非主要大国的分析中，凯瑟琳·巴比里和杰克·莱对自由主义假设所依赖的第二个前提提出了质疑。在本文中，我们进一步检验了贸易中断的前提。我们使用中断的时间序列模型来研究战争对14个主要大国的贸易的影响。我们发现相当有力的证据表明，大国战争与贸易相对于战前和战后时期的下降有关。我们还调查了战争对13个非主要大国的贸易的影响。这里的证据比较弱，但总的来说仍然支持贸易中断的假设。
The 'trade promotes peace' hypothesis rests upon three premises: (1) Societies achieve salient economic gains from their trading relationships; (2) serious conflict among societies disrupts trade; and (3) premises 1 and 2 enter the calculus of political decisionmakers. If any one of the three premises does nor hold, the liberal linkage between trade and peace is broken. In a recent analysis of seven non-major power dyads, Katherine Barbieri & Jack Lay raise doubts about the second premise upon which the liberal hypothesis rests. In this article, we further test che trade disruption premise. We use an interrupted rime-series model to study the impact of war on trade for 14 major power dyads. We find reasonably strong evidence that major power war is associated with a decline in trade relative to pre- and postwar periods. We also investigate the impact of war on trade for 13 non-major power dyads. Here the evidence is weaker but on balance remains supportive of the trade disruption premise.