Statistical modelling of measles and influenza outbreaks.
Statistical modelling of measles and influenza outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1177/096228029300200104
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发表时间：
1993-01-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Haggett, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cliff, A D;Haggett, P
本文综述了统计模型在麻疹和流感两种常见呼吸道病毒性疾病暴发中的应用。对于每种疾病，我们首先研究其流行病学特征，并评估这些特征在多大程度上有助于或阻碍建模。然后，我们转向已经开发的模拟地理传播的模型。对于麻疹，区分基于过程的模型和时间序列模型;对于流感，主要决定建模风格的是社区的规模（从小群体到全球人口）。应用程序是由作者提供的，主要使用冰岛的数据。最后，我们考虑所描述的模型的预测潜力。
This paper reviews the application of statistical models to outbreaks of two common respiratory viral diseases, measles and influenza. For each disease, we look first at its epidemiological characteristics and assess the extent to which these either aid or hinder modelling. We then turn to the models that have been developed to simulate geographical spread. For measles, a distinction is drawn between process-based and time series models; for influenza, it is the scale of the communities (from small groups to global populations) which primarily determines modelling style. Applications are provided from work by the authors, largely using Icelandic data. Finally we consider the forecasting potential of the models described.