Navigating the water trilemma: a strategic assessment of long-term national water resource management options for Great Britain
Navigating the water trilemma: a strategic assessment of long-term national water resource management options for Great Britain
复制标题
解决水难题：英国长期国家水资源管理方案的战略评估
DOI：
10.1111/wej.12352
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ives M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ives M
水需求的潜在增长，以及气候变化导致的水供应的不确定性，意味着英国的供水系统在未来几十年可能会变得越来越紧张。沿着对安全供水的需求，我们必须确保供水价格合理，并有足够的水来保护自然环境。满足安全性、可负担性和可持续性这三个独立的目标，以及它们不可避免的权衡，可以被称为“水三元困境”。在这种新的方法中，我们模拟预测的河流流量下的人口和气候变化，通过使用一个汇总的国家水资源模型来测试潜在的政策，以管理供水基础设施的需求和投资，以评估英国的能力，以满足其未来的需求。结果表明，一种平衡的方法，允许一些跨流域的水转移，同时也参与当地的解决方案，包括水的再利用，结合可扩展的需求管理和减少泄漏的行动，将最好地使英国能够驾驭这种水的三难困境。
Potential increases in water demand, alongside uncertainties in water availability due to climate change, mean that Britain's water supply system could become increasingly stressed over the coming decades. Along with the need for secure water supplies, we must ensure that the supply is affordable and that sufficient water is available to safeguard the natural environment. Meeting these three separate goals of security, affordability and sustainability, with their inevitable trade‐offs, can be termed the ‘water trilemma’. In this novel approach we simulate projections of river flows under population and climate change by using an aggregated national water resource model to test potential policies to manage demand and investments in water supply infrastructure in order to assess Britain's ability to meet its needs into the future. The results indicate that a balanced approach which allows for some inter‐basin water transfers while also engaging local solutions, including water re‐use, combined with scalable actions for demand management and leakage reduction, will best enable Britain to navigate this water trilemma.