Changes in Central Asia's Water Tower: Past, Present and Future
Changes in Central Asia's Water Tower: Past, Present and Future
复制标题
中亚水塔的变化：过去、现在和未来
DOI：
10.1038/srep35458
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发表时间：
2016-10-20
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Li, Zhi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yaning;Li, Weihong;Li, Zhi
天山山脉具有“水塔”的地位，是中亚地区的主要水源地和生态屏障。快速变暖影响了降水量和降水分数以及原始冰川/融雪水过程，从而影响径流和蓄水。降雪量与降水量之比（S/P）呈下降趋势，沿着由雪向雨转变。在空间上，天山中部积雪面积减少明显，而天山西部积雪面积略有增加。天山山脉约97.52%的冰川呈现退缩趋势，其中北天山和东天山尤为明显。河流径流对气候和冰冻圈的变化有着复杂的反应。看来，集水区与冰川化面积的比例较高，主要表现出增加径流的趋势，而河流流域较少或没有冰川化表现出很大的变化，在所观察到的径流变化。天山总蓄水量在中天山和东天山也有明显的减少趋势，而西天山则有轻微的减少趋势，总平均减少速率为-3.72mm/a。在未来，水储存水平预计将在未来半个世纪出现赤字。
The Tienshan Mountains, with its status as "water tower", is the main water source and ecological barrier in Central Asia. The rapid warming affected precipitation amounts and fraction as well as the original glacier/snowmelt water processes, thereby affecting the runoff and water storage. The ratio of snowfall to precipitation (S/P) experienced a downward trend, along with a shift from snow to rain. Spatially, the snow cover area in Middle Tienshan Mountains decreased significantly, while that in West Tienshan Mountains increased slightly. Approximately 97.52% of glaciers in the Tienshan Mountains showed a retreating trend, which was especially obvious in the North and East Tienshan Mountains. River runoff responds in a complex way to changes in climate and cryosphere. It appears that catchments with a higher fraction of glacierized area showed mainly increasing runoff trends, while river basins with less or no glacierization exhibited large variations in the observed runoff changes. The total water storage in the Tienshan Mountains also experienced a significant decreasing trend in Middle and East Tienshan Mountains, but a slight decreasing trend in West Tienshan Mountains, totally at an average rate of -3.72 mm/a. In future, water storage levels are expected to show deficits for the next half-century.