Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor
Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor
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DOI：
10.1257/jep.33.2.3
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Restrepo, Pascual
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Restrepo, Pascual
我们提出了一个框架来理解自动化和其他类型的技术变革对劳动力需求的影响，并用它来解释美国就业在最近的过去的变化。我们框架的中心是资本和劳动的任务分配，生产的任务内容。自动化使资本能够在其先前从事的任务中取代劳动力，由于替代效应，生产的任务内容相对于劳动力发生了转移。因此，自动化总是会降低劳动力在附加值中的份额，即使它提高了生产率，也可能会减少劳动力需求。自动化的影响被创造新的任务所抵消，在这些任务中，劳动力具有比较优势。新任务的引入由于复原效应而使生产的任务内容向有利于劳动的方向改变，并总是提高劳动份额和劳动需求。我们展示了如何从行业级数据中推断出自动化和新任务导致的生产任务内容变化的作用。我们的经验分解表明，过去30年就业增长放缓的原因是替代效应加速，特别是在制造业，复原效应较弱，以及生产率增长比前几十年更慢。
We present a framework for understanding the effects of automation and other types of technological changes on labor demand, and use it to interpret changes in US employment over the recent past. At the center of our framework is the allocation of tasks to capital and laborthe task content of production. Automation, which enables capital to replace labor in tasks it was previously engaged in, shifts the task content of production against labor because of a displacement effect. As a result, automation always reduces the labor share in value added and may reduce labor demand even as it raises productivity. The effects of automation are counterbalanced by the creation of new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. The introduction of new tasks changes the task content of production in favor of labor because of a reinstatement effect, and always raises the labor share and labor demand. We show how the role of changes in the task content of productiondue to automation and new taskscan be inferred from industry-level data. Our empirical decomposition suggests that the slower growth of employment over the last three decades is accounted for by an acceleration in the displacement effect, especially in manufacturing, a weaker reinstatement effect, and slower growth of productivity than in previous decades.