The Future Prevalence of Sarcopenia in Europe: A Claim for Public Health Action.
The Future Prevalence of Sarcopenia in Europe: A Claim for Public Health Action.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00223-016-0220-9
复制
发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Reginster JY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ethgen O;Beaudart C;Buckinx F;Bruyère O;Reginster JY
肌肉减少症是一个主要的公共卫生问题。为了说服紧急情况下的卫生政策制定者投资于肌肉减少症领域，提供未来几年肌肉减少症预期负担的可靠数据至关重要。从欧统局在线数据库（28个欧洲国家）检索到2045年之前按年龄和性别分列的人口预测。根据EWGSOP提出的定义的不同诊断临界值，从一项比较患病率估计值的研究中插入年龄和性别特异性的肌肉减少症患病率。报告的流行率估计数是在65至100年之间内插的。然后将内插的年龄和性别特异性肌肉减少症患病率估计值应用于2045年之前的人口预测。使用提供最低患病率估计的定义，欧洲肌肉减少症患者的数量将从2016年的10，869，527人增加到2045年的18，735，173人（增加72.4%）。这相当于老年人肌肉减少症的总体患病率从2016年的11.1%上升至2045年的12.9%。根据提供最高患病率估计的定义，肌肉减少症患者的数量将从2016年的19，740，527人增加到2045年的32，338，990人（增加63.8%），相当于2016年和2045年老年人的总体患病率分别为20.2%和22.3%。我们发现，肌肉减少症患者的数量将在未来30年内急剧增加，使肌肉萎缩的后果成为一个主要的公共卫生问题。
Sarcopenia is a major public health issue. To convince health policy makers of the emergency to invest in the sarcopenia field, it is of critical importance to produce reliable figures of the expected burden of sarcopenia in the coming years. Age- and gender-specific population projections were retrieved until 2045 from the Eurostat online database (28 European countries). Age- and gender-specific prevalences of sarcopenia were interpolated from a study that compared prevalence estimates according to the different diagnostic cutoffs of the EWGSOP proposed definition. The reported prevalence estimates were interpolated between 65 and 100 years. Interpolated age- and gender-specific estimates of sarcopenia prevalence were then applied to population projections until 2045. Using the definition providing the lowest prevalence estimates, the number of individuals with sarcopenia would rise in Europe from 10,869,527 in 2016 to 18,735,173 in 2045 (a 72.4% increase). This corresponds to an overall prevalence of sarcopenia in the elderly rising from 11.1% in 2016 to 12.9% in 2045. With the definition providing the highest prevalence estimates, the number of individuals with sarcopenia would rise from 19,740,527 in 2016 to 32,338,990 in 2045 (a 63.8% increase), corresponding to overall prevalence rates in the elderly of 20.2% and 22.3% for 2016 and 2045, respectively. We showed that the number of sarcopenic patients will dramatically increase in the next 30 years, making consequences of muscle wasting a major public health issue.