Global landslide and avalanche hotspots
Global landslide and avalanche hotspots
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DOI：
10.1007/s10346-006-0036-1
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发表时间：
2006-02
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
F. Nadim;O. Kjekstad;P. Peduzzi;C. Herold;C. Jaedicke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Nadim;O. Kjekstad;P. Peduzzi;C. Herold;C. Jaedicke
在发展中国家开展工作的开发银行和国际机构高度重视为自然灾害风险管理分配资源。绘制了全球山崩和雪崩灾害和风险图，以确定受影响最大的国家。根据气候、岩性、地震活动和地形的全球数据集，确定了危险性最高的地区或“热点”。所应用的模型基于所有输入数据的分类值。该模型的输出是一个滑坡和雪崩危险指数，这是全球范围内分为九个级别。模型的结果进行了校准和验证，在选定的地区存在良好的数据滑坡事件。滑坡和雪崩灾害模型的结果与全球人口数据一起被用作风险评估的输入。风险最高的地区是哥伦比亚、塔吉克斯坦、印度和尼泊尔，估计每100平方公里每年死亡人数超过1人。该模型对249个国家中的240个国家的滑坡灾害作出了合理的预测。更多更好的输入数据可以进一步改进模型。今后的工作将侧重于选定的领域，以研究该模式在国家和区域范围的适用性。
Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km2was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.