Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience
Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aay4895
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发表时间：
2021-06-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Scheffer, Marten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arani, Babak M. S.;Carpenter, Stephen R.;Scheffer, Marten
生态恢复力是指一个系统能够恢复到其原始状态的最大扰动的大小。然而，进入另一种状态的转变通常可能是由一系列微小的协同扰动引起的，而不是一个大的扰动。我们展示了如何弹性可以估计的平均预期寿命，占这种自然制度的变化。我们使用时间序列来拟合一个模型，该模型捕获了随机性和确定性成分。然后，该模型被用来估计从吸引盆的平均退出时间。这种方法提供了一个新的角度来预测一个关键的转变的机会时，高分辨率的时间序列变得越来越可用。
Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available.