Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone
Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0748-z
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Salehin, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hossain, Md. Sarwar;Dearing, John A.;Salehin, M.
这项研究采取了历史的方法，以建立代表孟加拉国西南沿海地区的社会生态系统的形式和功能在最近几十年发生了变化。对一系列生态系统服务和驱动因素的时间序列数据进行了分析，以确定趋势的范围、变化点的存在、慢变量和快变量以及重大变化驱动因素。自1980年代以来，国内生产总值和人均收入的增加反映了粮食和内陆鱼类生产水平的提高。因此，贫困线以下的人口减少了约17%。与此相反，非粮食生态系统服务，如水的供应、水质和土地的稳定性却在恶化。将稻田改为养虾场几乎肯定是增加土壤和地表水盐度的一个因素。大多数服务在1975年至1980年期间经历了具有统计意义的变化点，在这些服务中，供水、养虾和维持生物多样性似乎已经超过了临界点。一项环境库兹涅茨曲线分析表明，在水资源方面，经济财富的增长还没有达到有效保护环境的程度。生态系统服务和人类福祉指标的趋势表明，受缓慢变化的变量支配的广泛的非平稳动态，在不久的将来出现系统性阈值变化/临界点的可能性增加。研究结果将纳入模拟模型和战略，以确定土地管理的替代和可持续途径。
This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by similar to 17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.