Assessing the Impact of Adaptive Agricultural Research on Accelerating Technology Deployment
Assessing the Impact of Adaptive Agricultural Research on Accelerating Technology Deployment
复制标题
DOI：
10.5367/000000010791745330
复制
发表时间：
2010-06
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
O. Erenstein;V. Laxmi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O. Erenstein;V. Laxmi
农业研发工作的影响评估中的一个关键假设是，所涉努力是否有替代品--即创新是否也会在其他情况下发生。本文以印度免耕小麦为例，探讨了不同的反事实情景，即在没有的情况下，创新不会被引入，或者只有十年或五年的滞后。作者量化了假设的反事实情景如何影响各种影响评估指标。它们表明，即使假设一个保守的五年滞后，并仅基于诱导的供应转移收益，国际农业研究体系对零耕作研发的投资也是非常有益的。免耕结合了成本节约和产量增加的能力，其广泛的适用性和大量的研发溢出对高回报做出了贡献。因此，这一案例突显了成功的适应性研究的高潜在收益，即使主要影响只是加速技术部署。
A critical assumption in the impact assessment of an agricultural R&D effort is whether the effort in question has a substitute – that is, whether the innovation would also happen under other settings. This paper takes the case of zero tillage wheat in India to explore diverging counterfactual scenarios whereby, in the ‘without’ case, the innovation would not have been introduced or would have been introduced only with a ten-year or five-year lag. The authors quantify how the assumed counterfactual scenario affects various impact assessment indicators. They show that, even when assuming a conservative five-year lag and based on induced supply-shift gains alone, the investment in zero tillage R&D by the international agricultural research system was highly beneficial. The ability of zero tillage to combine cost savings and yield gains, its wide applicability and significant R&D spill-ins contributed to the high returns. The case thus highlights the high potential gains from successful adaptive research, even if the main effect is only to accelerate technology deployment.