Consumer Demand Shocks and Firm Linkages: Evidence from Demonetization in India
Consumer Demand Shocks and Firm Linkages: Evidence from Demonetization in India
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消费者需求冲击和企业联系：印度废钞令的证据
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3698258
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Phan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Faizaan Kisat;M. Phan
本文以2016年印度废钞事件为例，分析了消费者需求冲击通过企业投入产出网络传播的程度。2016年11月，印度取消了86%的货币，造成了全国性的需求冲击。我们构建的措施，上游的非货币化冲击对企业的供应链中的位置的基础上评估的影响。与许多网络模型的预测相反，我们发现冲击并没有在整个供应链中有意义地传播。收入、工资和投资在非货币化后大幅下降，但这些负面影响主要限于面向消费者的公司。我们确定了几个机制，如定价权，库存摩擦，出口强度，独立解释这一结果。我们的研究结果表明，最终产品生产商特别容易受到消费者需求意外下降的影响，因此必须受到保护。
Exploiting a unique natural experiment, the 2016 demonetization episode in India, this paper analyzes the extent to which a consumer demand shock propagates through firms’ input-output networks. In November 2016, India demonetized 86% of its currency, creating a nationwide demand shock. We construct measures of upstreamness to evaluate the impact of the demonetization shock on firms based on their position in the supply chain. Contrary to the predictions of many network models, we find that the shock does not meaningfully propagate across the supply chain. Revenues, wages, and investment decline substantially after demonetization, but these negative effects are largely limited to consumer facing firms. We identify several mechanisms, such as pricing power, inventory frictions, and export intensity, which independently explain this result. Our findings suggest that final goods producers are particularly susceptible to, and therefore must be protected against, unexpected declines in consumer demand.