Assessing Tornado Impacts in the State of Kentucky with a Focus on Demographics and Roadways Using a GIS-Based Approach
Assessing Tornado Impacts in the State of Kentucky with a Focus on Demographics and Roadways Using a GIS-Based Approach
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DOI：
10.3390/su16031180
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发表时间：
2024-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Mehmet Burak Kaya;Onur Alisan;A. Karaer;E. Ozguven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mehmet Burak Kaya;Onur Alisan;A. Karaer;E. Ozguven
虽然文献对龙卷风的脆弱性和复原力提供了有价值的见解，但在评估龙卷风对社区和交通基础设施的影响方面仍然存在研究空白，特别是在气候变化导致龙卷风频率和强度迅速变化之后。在这项研究中，我们首先调查了龙卷风暴露与人口，社会经济和交通相关因素之间的关系，在我们的研究区域，肯塔基州。利用核密度估计和分区统计等空间分析方法计算了每个美国人口普查区块组（CBG）的龙卷风暴露量。利用1950年至2022年之间的龙卷风来计算龙卷风密度值作为龙卷风暴露的替代变量。由于龙卷风密度随空间而变化，采用多尺度地理加权回归模型来考虑研究区域的空间异质性，而不是使用全局回归，如普通最小二乘法（OLS）。研究结果表明，龙卷风密度在研究区域各不相同。肯塔基州和杰斐逊县的西南部居民密度较低，显示出高水平的龙卷风暴露。此外，选定的因素和龙卷风暴露之间的关系也随着空间的变化而变化。例如，在肯塔基州西南部，交通费用占地区典型家庭收入的百分比与龙卷风暴露密切相关，而靠近杰斐逊县的地区则相反。本研究的第二部分涉及使用两种不同的方法对龙卷风对道路的影响进行量化，并将结果绘制成地图。虽然在这两种方法中发现相同的区域受到影响，但第二种方法突出了中心CBG而不是边缘。通过这种调查收集的信息可以帮助当局从交通网络和社区的角度确定脆弱地区。从龙卷风碎片处理到社区准备，这类工作有可能为肯塔基州以可持续发展为重点的计划和政策提供信息。
Although the literature provides valuable insight into tornado vulnerability and resilience, there are still research gaps in assessing tornadoes’ impact on communities and transportation infrastructure, especially in the wake of the rapidly changing frequency and strength of tornadoes due to climate change. In this study, we first investigated the relationship between tornado exposure and demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related factors in our study area, the state of Kentucky. Tornado exposures for each U.S. census block group (CBG) were calculated by utilizing spatial analysis methods such as kernel density estimation and zonal statistics. Tornadoes between 1950 and 2022 were utilized to calculate tornado density values as a surrogate variable for tornado exposure. Since tornado density varies over space, a multiscale geographically weighted regression model was employed to consider spatial heterogeneity over the study region rather than using global regression such as ordinary least squares (OLS). The findings indicated that tornado density varied over the study area. The southwest portion of Kentucky and Jefferson County, which has low residential density, showed high levels of tornado exposure. In addition, relationships between the selected factors and tornado exposure also changed over space. For example, transportation costs as a percentage of income for the regional typical household was found to be strongly associated with tornado exposure in southwest Kentucky, whereas areas close to Jefferson County indicated an opposite association. The second part of this study involves the quantification of the tornado impact on roadways by using two different methods, and results were mapped. Although in both methods the same regions were found to be impacted, the second method highlighted the central CBGs rather than the peripheries. Information gathered by such an investigation can assist authorities in identifying vulnerable regions from both transportation network and community perspectives. From tornado debris handling to community preparedness, this type of work has the potential to inform sustainability-focused plans and policies in the state of Kentucky.