Monotonic Increase of Extreme Precipitation Intensity With Temperature When Controlled for Saturation Deficit
Monotonic Increase of Extreme Precipitation Intensity With Temperature When Controlled for Saturation Deficit
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl097881
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Guiling Wang;Xiaoming Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guiling Wang;Xiaoming Sun
过去的研究基于单变量尺度分析的天气时间尺度记录了极端降水强度（EPI）的负标度，这阻止了EPI外推过去的气候。在这里，我们提出了一个双变量标度分析，并表明，相反的单变量标度结果，EPI随温度单调增加，并显示没有负标度饱和赤字控制时。在饱和大气中观测到的EPI-温度关系在不同地区之间惊人地相似，并且密切遵循Clausius-Clapeyron标度;气候模式产生了更大的区域依赖性，标度率范围很广。对于非热带地区，饱和状态下的模型模拟EPI-温度关系显示出过去到未来的连续性，这可能支持外推到更温暖的气候。在饱和度的缩放桥梁天气和气候时间尺度之间的EPI-温度关系，并可能通过从过去的观测外推未来的降水极端的潜在预测。
Past studies based on univariate scaling analyses at the weather time scale documented a negative scaling of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI), which prevents EPI extrapolation from past climate. Here we present a bivariate scaling analysis and show that, contrary to the univariate scaling results, EPI monotonically increases with temperature and shows no negative scaling when controlled for saturation deficit. The observed EPI‐temperature relationship in saturated atmosphere is surprisingly similar among different regions and closely follows the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling; climate models produce greater regional dependence of the scaling relationship with a wide range of scaling rate. For extratropical regions, the model‐simulated EPI‐temperature relationship under saturation shows a past‐to‐future continuity, which could potentially support extrapolation to a warmer climate. The scaling at saturation bridges the EPI‐temperature relationship between weather and climate time scales and may enable potential prediction of future precipitation extremes via extrapolation from past observations.