Local and landscape management of an expanding range margin under climate change
Local and landscape management of an expanding range margin under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02098.x
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发表时间：
2012-06
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
C. Lawson;J. Bennie;C. Thomas;J. Hodgson;R. Wilson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Lawson;J. Bennie;C. Thomas;J. Hodgson;R. Wilson
摘要1.迫切需要了解如何在气候变化下促进物种的范围转移。然而，很少有实证研究，以告知决策，特别是在精细的空间和时间分辨率。2.我们提出了一个案例研究的热限制栖息地专家，银斑船长蝴蝶Hesperia逗号，在其不断扩大的范围内的边缘在英国东南部。使用数据从724栖息地补丁在9年的时间间隔（2000-2009年），我们研究了当地和景观的殖民化，生存和人口密度的决定因素。然后，我们预测了1982年和2009年观察到的分布下栖息地斑块的殖民化和生存概率，以研究限制范围扩张的因素如何通过空间和时间变化。3.在2000年至2009年期间，西斯佩里亚逗号继续在英国扩大其范围，但记录的67次殖民事件被48次地方性灭绝事件所抵消。灭绝与气候密切相关，主要发生在较凉爽的地区和阴影朝北的斜坡上。4.种群密度和生存概率密切相关的网站内的条件，而殖民化的概率在很大程度上是由功能连接。生存概率也受到连通性的影响，这表明移民有助于支持易患病人群（“救援效应”）。5.斑块占用超出范围的边缘主要是殖民化的限制，但接近扩大前，人口生存成为关键的限制因素。这种模式是保守的范围扩大，改变管理的优先事项在个别网站。6.合成与应用。以前关于促进范围转移的研究强调了增加集群规模连通性以消除殖民限制的必要性，我们的数据证实了这一建议。然而，我们表明，提高人口的生存也可以帮助促进范围的扩大，因为人口在领先的范围边缘面临高灭绝的风险。种群存活率可以通过当地管理行动直接提高，如扩大斑块面积和提高栖息地质量，或通过改善连通性间接提高。因此，地方管理可以确保在范围边缘的弱势群体，并为未来的扩张提供更大和更稳定的移民来源，值得考虑在气候变化下促进范围转移。
Summary 1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species’ range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south-eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9-year interval (2000–2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north-facing slopes. 4. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction-prone populations (a ‘rescue effect’). 5. Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6. Synthesis and applications. Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape-scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.